The final four; TV writer Aaron Barnhart sets up tonight's 'Survivor' finale and tells us everyone's chances

Richard Age: 39 Occupation: Corporate trainer Residence: Newport, R.I. Profile: Chubby nudist, dastardly schemer Why he's there: Known to Internet admirers and detractors as "Richard III" and "Tricky Ricky," he masterminded the Tagi alliance and kept it going-even lying about its existence when he needed to. How he wins: Promises to split million dollars with tribal council. Otherwise, not a chance. How he loses: His bizarre behavior and ruthless double-dealing will finally catch up to him. Should he make it to the final tribal council, the jury will consist mostly of his victims. Kelly Age: 23 Occupation: River guide Residence: Las Vegas Profile: Dark horse with a police record Why she's there: Won the last two immunity challenges, sparing her the daggers of the alliance How she wins: The Richard-Rudy-Susan troika has picked off most of its younger rivals. But now they're stuck with Kelly, who's not afraid to be nasty or confrontational. That could hold her in good stead with the jury. How she loses: If she loses an immunity challenge, her goose is cooked. Susan Age: 38 Occupation: Truck driver Residence: Palmyra, Wis. Profile: Think the female cop from "Fargo" with a ruthless streak Why she's there: Bad grammar or not, she's smart and tough and had an instinctive feel for the game. After snubbing teammates who wanted to form a "chick clique," she joined up with Richard and Rudy to form a voting bloc. How she wins: Makes it to the final vote against Richard, the only person who's ticked off more people than she. How she loses: Richard double-crosses her. Or council members hold her blunt demeanor and crude vocabulary against her. Rudy Age: 72 Occupation: Retired Residence: Virginia Beach, Va. Profile: Ex-Navy SEAL Why he's there: Early on he promised he'd have this game all figured out. He was right. He joined Richard and Susan to form a Tagi alliance that has ousted the last six "Survivor" castoffs. How he wins: Most "Survivor" addicts are pulling for Rudy. We think the final tribal council will agree. Though his crustiness and candor made him an early target, he now has the lowest profile of any finalist. No one has voted against him since Week 7. In fact, people kinda like the ol' gay-basher. How he loses: Richard double-crosses him. Follow 'Survivor' week by week, starting at the lower left of our island gameboard B.B. finds a watering hole, gives his team fire and generally works like heck. Richard takes off his shirt and sits in a tree. Pagong loses the immunity challenge because Gervase won't eat his beetle larvae. A frustrated B.B. tells his lazy teammates to vote him off, so they do. Richard announces he's gay and takes off his trunks. Colleen and Greg start sneaking off at night to cuddle. (Colleen later denies that they ever had, in David Letterman's words, "wild island sex.") Pagong loses the immunity challenge because Gervase can't swim. "Survivor" finishes No. 1 in the ratings. Its weekly audience now exceeds 20 million. Sickly Ramona recovers. Pagong gives her the gong anyway. The Tagi tribe eats well, thanks to Richard's fishing skills. Sean's bowels finally move. He shares the good news with all. An Internet rumor circulates that hardy Gretchen will win "Survivor." Gervase jokingly compares women to cows. But the enraged Pagong women instead vote off Joel, who's accused of enjoying the joke too much. B.B. makes a Reebok ad. Rattana is formed, but a Tagi alliance promptly ousts Gretchen. A new Internet rumor circulates: Gervase will win. The evil host Jeff Probst tantalizes everyone with a short video made by their family members - all except Jenna, who weeps uncontrollably. The alliance strikes again, ridding the island of flaky Greg. A Web site uncovers an arrest warrant for Kelly, who's wanted on a credit-card fraud charge. Strategy or stupidity? Sean tells everyone he's voting in alphabetical order from now on, starting with Jenna. Sure enough, Jenna is ousted. The Internet didn't see it coming, but he did: Gervase wears a bull's-eye on his chest to tribal council, where he is cast off by the alliance. Departing sweetheart Colleen tells the group, "Play fair and be nice." Kelly presses the most mud off her body into a bucket and wins a night out. Rudy declares that he hopes never to see Richard again after "Survivor." They vote together, which means so long to the nutty neurologist Sean. @ART CAPTION:Richard; Kelly; Susan; Rudy @ART:Photos (4, color) @ART CREDIT:HECTOR CASANOVA/The Kansas City Star @ART:Graphic (color) >>>