Bruce Springsteen satirized cable TV in his song "57 Channels (And Nothin' On)." This fall, however, cable may seem like a treasure chest compared with broadcast TV. That could happen if the warring Writers Guild of America and the movie and television industries don't reach a contract settlement by Tuesday. Without a new deal, the WGA will strike May 2. Work on TV and movie scripts will cease. Without writers to develop new episodes of such scripted favorites as "The West Wing" and "CSI," the fall TV schedule probably will be heavy with unscripted reality shows and Adam Sandler movies. Ironically, it's cable TV - that bastion of non-union writers and performers - that will have the fresh stuff. Springsteen might not approve, but cable channels like Animal Planet, VH1 and even Comedy Central would benefit from a strike just by airing their usual programs this fall. The ripple effects of a Hollywood shutdown would eventually reach moviegoers, though for a few months life at the local multiplex probably would go on more or less as usual. Meanwhile, talks are ongoing between 11,000 members of the WGA and negotiators for the movie and TV industry, amid a news blackout. No settlement had been reached as of press time (the FYI section is printed Wednesday afternoon), but at least the two sides are talking. They had stayed away from the bargaining table for six weeks before resuming talks April 17. The second shoe could drop in two months. The 135,000 members of the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the American Federation of Television & Radio Artists (AFTRA) also will walk the picket line if they don't have new deals to replace contracts that expire June 30. Not lacking foresight, the TV networks and movie studios have spent the past few months stocking their shelves in anticipation of a strike. TV producers were asked to speed up their schedules in order to squeeze out extra episodes. Directors are racing to finish a whole slew of films before the strike date. If there is a walkout, Hollywood will carefully husband its stockpiled films so moviegoers are regularly enticed by new releases. No doubt we'll also see some so-so films pulled from the shelf and thrown into the marketplace, just to keep up the turnover in titles. If the last WGA strike, in 1988, is any indicator, the industry can be very stubborn. That stoppage lasted 22 weeks and pushed the fall TV season back to October. As was true back then, the first TV shows to be affected by a strike would be the late-night comedy talk programs, whose joke writers and hosts all belong to the writers' guild. However, not all late-night shows would suffer the same fate. Because they are owned by NBC, "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" and "Late Night With Conan O'Brien" would likely shut down completely. Over at CBS, however, the network does not own "Late Show With David Letterman" and "Late Late Show With Craig Kilborn" - Letterman does, through his company Worldwide Pants. Since his company is relatively puny, Letterman (a member of the WGA and AFTRA) is seeking a waiver so his shows can continue during the strike, a source familiar with the situation said this week. Last-minute deal? Some observers are starting to question whether there will be a strike or if it will be as long-lasting as the 1988 stoppage. The WGA and industry negotiators are reportedly not that far apart. About $100 million separates their offers, according to writers familiar with the talks. That's pocket change considering the billions of dollars in revenue at stake. A serious bone of contention is the residual - the payment made to writers of movie and TV scripts when those works are rebroadcast or sold as home video. For instance, SAG president William Daniels earns a small residual every time a rerun of "St. Elsewhere," the 1980s show on which he starred, appears on Bravo. In the 1980s, the fledgling Fox network asked for, and got, a discount on the residuals it would have to pay to writers of Fox shows. Now that Fox is a powerhouse, it still wants a discount on future residual payments. That has WGA members seeing red. "The fact that the network can stare you in the face and literally say, 'Uh, we don't want to pay full price because, uh, we like paying less,' is just incredible," said one writer for a top-rated sitcom. But even sympathetic observers say the writers will have a hard time selling the public on the righteousness of their cause. "What if plumbers, after they put in your sink, charge you residuals every time you turn on the faucet?" said Gary Dretzka, who covers Hollywood for the Chicago Tribune. "That's what (the writers) have been getting all these years, and God bless 'em. But how do you explain this to a plumber? For bad sitcoms?" Also, the writers won't be able to count on the level of public outrage that accompanied the 1988 strike. Today, with four out of five American homes having cable or satellite TV, viewers simply have a lot more choices. Cable shows, unlike network programs, don't employ union talent. They also air more originals than they did 13 years ago. The WGA is also negotiating with the Directors Guild of America over several "creative-rights" issues. The biggest fight is over the WGA's attempts to restrict the use of "a film by" credit followed by the director's name. Such a credit, the writers say, undervalues their contribution to the filmmaking process. It's controversial because it would deny directors some of the glory they're accustomed to. Some observers think that if the WGA gets the desired monetary concessions, its negotiators won't let the "a film by" ruckus precipitate a strike. Exactly what's at stake in the SAG and AFTRA talks is unknown - the actors' unions haven't made their contract demands public, although additional money from rebroadcasts, video and DVD is undoubtedly a key factor. To reach Robert W. Butler, movie editor for The Star, call 816-234-4760 or e-mail bbutler@kcstar.com. To reach Aaron Barnhart, visit TV Barn Web site at www.tvbarn.com. >>>

