The mysterious case of the disappearing viewer

It's upfronts week again -- time for the major TV networks to unveil their fall schedules and begin their annual mating rites with major advertisers. It will be a heady time for the producers whose months of script-writing and scene-shooting are rewarded when their pilots are picked up. It will be a bummer for fans of shows that are left off next season's prime-time grids.

  First out of the gate is NBC, with its star-studded presentation this afternoon at Radio City Music Hall. ABC, CBS, the CW network and Fox, in that order, will follow later this week. I'll have reports from each of their extravaganzas in these pages and more reports at my Web site, TVBarn.com.

Normally the talk of upfronts is about winners and losers. Advertisers will buy an estimated $8 billion in commercial time “up front,” that is, prior to the start of the 2007-08 television season. In past years it was a sure thing that some networks that had good seasons would negotiate a bigger piece of the pie, while other networks would be forced to accept smaller slices as the price of declining ratings.

  But this year, all the networks are looking like losers. Some 2.5 million people have suddenly stopped watching ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox, according to David Bauder of the Associated Press, who called it “TV's worst spring in recent memory.” An average of 37.6 million people watched prime-time network TV in March and early April, down from 40 million viewers a year earlier. With very few exceptions (like Fox's brilliant drama “House”), ratings for nearly every top show are down.

  In the cases of Fox's “24,” ABC's “Lost,” and CBS's “Survivor,” the falloff in audience has been especially alarming. As for last year's big fad -- serial thrillers packed with tune-in-next-week cliffhangers -- well, let's just say a lot of people didn't tune in next week. Most of the new serials are already gone, while the two supposed “hits,” NBC's “Heroes” and CBS's “Jericho,” which is set in mythical post-apocalyptic Kansas, are losing steam. In fact, “Jericho” is said to be on the verge of cancellation. So this week, look for networks to get back to basics. The hottest show idea going is that old standby, the spinoff. ABC has one in the works featuring Kate Walsh, known as Addison on its Thursday-night hit “Grey's Anatomy.” And Fox has a band version of “American Idol” in the works.

  What exactly is causing viewers to vanish is a bit of a mystery. (The AP's Bauder gathered a whole host of excuses, from kids' obsession with video games to the moveback of Daylight Savings Time.) One culprit, for sure, is the DVR, or digital video recorder. DVRs, which include TiVo boxes, are in about 17 percent of homes, according to Nielsen. With their one-touch recording and vast hard drives, DVRs allow millions of people to skip appointment TV altogether. These viewers don't appear in the traditional ratings, because Nielsen measures DVR use separately (see box). The chairman of CBS, Leslie Moonves, said earlier this month that “a big chunk of the viewing pie” is being lost to DVRs.

  Even worse for executives like Moonves, the people who use DVRs really enjoy using the fast-forward button on their remotes to skip over the ads.

  This may not seem like a concern for the average viewer, except that somebody's got to pay for those big-budget network shows. That would be the sponsor. And this spring, unless the networks do some particularly nifty song-and-dance routines -- not on stage at Carnegie Hall but in their closed-door negotiations -- their advertisers are going to take a pile of their money someplace else.

  So what, you say: I watch cable anyway. Oh, do you? Well, cable ratings are up only slightly year-to-year, which means not enough folks are joining you to account for the drop in network viewers. And if you think cable programs are just as good as network programs, you're leaving one important factor out. As any long-suffering fan of “The Shield” or “The Sopranos” or “Monk” will tell you, cable programs tend to vanish for six to nine months at a time because cable channels can only afford 10 or 12 or 13 episodes for the season, instead of the network-standard 22 episodes. Everything about cable is smaller than network TV: the audiences, the production budgets and the number of shows.

  Still, the networks have managed to keep jacking up their rates over the years, and advertisers have paid ever more handsomely for commercial time. As a result, we the audience have been rewarded with the best lineup of prime-time entertainment perhaps in our lifetimes. But for the first time in a long time, there is real worry in New York that the good times may be coming to an end.

  Last season, the big four networks were being watched during prime time, on average, in just 44 percent of homes, according to historical Nielsen data. Twenty-five years ago, when there were only three big networks, they were viewed, on average, in 83 percent of homes. In that same period, newspaper readership dipped from 67 percent to 54 percent of American homes. (To those who say I'm comparing apples to oranges, you're right: I didn't even factor in the readers we get from the Web.)

  If there's one thing that's certain in this most uncertain of times, it's that the people who bring you network TV will have something to say about all this. So keep it tuned here during upfronts week.

Top 10 timeshifted shows

Here, according to Nielsen, are the programs watched off DVRs the most. “The Office” had the highest gain in total viewership (31%) when timeshifters are included.

1. House

2. Lost

3. American Idol (Tue)

4. CSI

5. 24

6. Survivor

7. The Office

8. Desperate Housewives

9. American Idol (Wed)

10. Prison Break

Comments

[Aaron]

One reason for disappearing viewers that was not mentioned – TV series canceled, leaving viewers hanging with unresolved storylines. Like it or not, viewers like myself get wrapped up the stories of TV dramas, only to get “burned” when the shows are abruptly canceled. That happened to my wife and I when “American Dreams” was canceled. We really would’ve liked NBC to wrap up the story for their viewers. And now another one of our favorites, “Jericho”, will most likely be canceled. I’m sure “American Idol” (a show which can be canceled anytime in my opinion) has a lot to do with the viewing audience for “Jericho”. Move the show to Friday, and it most likely thrives. And networks are less likely to allow a show to develop an audience. “MASH” was on the verge of ending prematurely when the network decided to let it evolve. It only became one of the most popular shows in TV history. We watch very few TV dramas mostly because we don’t want to get wrapped up in a show that won’t be given the chance to survive. I guess we will just substitute these shows with rented videos – at least the networks can’t take those away from us!

Bruce Johnston

[Coz]

This is SO TRUE. I keep seeing this opinion expressed over and over on websites- why should I start watching a new drama if the network is going to yank it off the air after 3 episodes? This happened to me at least 4 times this season! Am I so lame I only watch bad tv? No, I don't think so. I think the general viewing public is so lazy, the most they can commit to are reality shows which require less brain power to digest. So I flee to BBCAmerica and PBS for a little brain stimulation. Jericho is a marvelous show. The Black Donnellys is brilliant. But it's easier and cheaper for the networks to cater to the lowest common denominator - which unfortunately is a growing segment of our population. Sad times indeed.

[matt stechel]

yeah i too keep seeing that ol escuse being thrown about...used to have a college roomate who used to be convinced that whenever he got hooked on something it would end up dying...and the sad thing is he was then proven right yet again when i got hooked him on John Doe! (yes it was only 5 years ago but still) Anyways...this can't be the excuse for everyone still...but it is common knowledge to the average tv fan that if a show is considered successful a DVD release of the past season is usually just awaiting to happen. (and in many cases even when a show is not as well.) so its hard to say really....

As for me I still STILL say "IT IS BETTER TO HAVE LOVED AND LOST A TV SHOW THEN TO NEVER HAVE WATCHED IT AT ALL" i mean c'mon if someone doesn't watch these shows...then who's gonna get out there and support it?

Also i'd just like to throw in that maybe people are leaving tv in droves because a lot of the shows left are things people either feel they've seen before because some of these shows have just been left on forever...ER is in its what season now??? I still tape it every week out of strict habbit (it helps that i record the sitcom block before it so i can just set it an extra hour every week...hey its a better lead-in then The Apprentice ever was!) but to say its gone downhill is beyond passe at this point right?

[benson]

Aaron, did you really write: "As a result, we the audience have been rewarded with the best lineup of prime-time entertainment perhaps in our lifetimes. But for the first time in a long time, there is real worry in New York that the good times may be coming to an end."

Are you serious or sarcastic? Best line-up. Not even close. The networks and cable, too, are getting what they deserve. The studios hire dimwits as executives, hire untalented people to put them together, and then over-research these shows to the point where we are now, which is, a whole bunch of garbage (and in all fairness, some gems amongst the garbage) Maybe the dramas are not in a state of crisis, but the sitcoms sure are. Where is the Seinfeld, the next Frasier, then next anything that isn't insipid?

[Ron]

This year, more than any other, I have watched my TV faves in non-traditional ways.

First, I timeshift everything except news. I have over 70 season passes. Next, I have watched missed episodes -- or shows that conflicted with my ability to record two shows at once on my DVR -- online. I have watched online episodes of shows on NBC, Fox, ABC, and CBS. And to top it off, I have purchased season passes to several shows, 'The Office', 'Veronica Mars', and 'The Sarah Silverman Show', etc. via iTunes.

I am the modern TV viewer. I am out there watching more TV now than ever before. If you cannot "find" me, you need to update your method of gathering metrics.

To paraphrase an 'X-Files' tagline, "The Viewer Is Out There."

Ron Casalotti
Wayne, NJ

[Aaron]

A reader writes....

If the networks want to know why their new programs (especially cereals) don't work, I'll tell them why my husband and I stop watching them. First, they seem interesting and promising, and we start following the show, then after about 5 or 7 weeks, (often less) it's gone. We're left hanging in the air. Sometimes they decide to resume a program after 2 or 3 months have passed, and sometimes not. By the time the show resumes, we've completely got "uninterested" in it. "Jericho" and "Lost" both come to mind. I'm so far behind, I haven't a clue what is happening now. Furthermore, don't really care. Both started out with a lot of promise, then came back opposite programs we liked a little better. Consequently we never went back to viewing them.

Another beef I have, the networks rerun an old show I've already seen, even in the middle of winter. One time I purposely didn't start a Hallmark made for t.v. movie, because "Desparate Housewives" was on during the second hour. I had waited all week for my new favorite show and then when it started, I had seen it already. Really p............ me off, because I missed the start of the movie that evening. How was I to know that in January (I think) that Desparate was taking a hiatus for several weeks and would be reruns. That's another thing, what happened to new shows starting in September and ending in May? without repeats or long breaks! Like they used to.

I realize the networks make their money from commercials but what is with them running 10 min. of show (if we are lucky), and at least 5 or 6 min. of ads? I usually fall asleep during the ads if it is after 9 p.m. Another reason I quickly get bored with a show. One time I counted 7 or 8 commercials in a row on American Idol. Then Ryan Seacrest came on for a two-liner and went right back to commercials. Give Me a Break!

Lastly, the networks all try to "steal" each others viewers...all want to put their best programs up against each other to see who will win out. Someone is always going to lose. Why don't they try something different....try and space their shows on different evenings at varying times. We would all be winners.

The Nielsen Ratings....how do they know what America is watching? I've been around for 60 years, know quite a few people, and have never in my lifetime known or even heard of anyone being asked to have a box put on their tv from the Nielsen folks. Perhaps they don't care what middle America likes.

A lot of shows we liked are now gone, only a handful remain. We will always watch NFL football until those folks decide to give it to pay tv. You see, we are on a fixed income and really can't afford cable television what with utilities, insurance, medical care, gasoline, food and the mortgage constantly escalating. Guess we'll go back to reading books as they are pretty cheap when you find them at garage sales. And besides, I can read without commercial interruption and choose when to turn them off and on and never miss anything.

[cmarshalldavis]

the disappearing viewer, huh? if "an average of 37.6 million people watched prime-time network TV in March and early April" I wonder what the other 262.4 million people in our land were doing? something, meaningful perhaps? we can only hope. there is no sympathy for that fact from this member of the 262.4 million. the networks have been pandering to us with such pathetic crap that it's a wonder they even can put up those numbers. i rejoice in every story of "disappearing viewers" and await the day when the networks no longer exist and all 300 million of us persue endeavors other than sitting on ones butt watching the sort of drivel that passes for entertainment on television. the only thing worse than watching it (which i do not) i having to depend on a paycheck writing about it.

[Mark Jeffries]

And the great intellectual who prides himself on not watching television doesn't know proper spelling, capitalization, grammar, usage and punctuation. Moron.

[Mark Jeffries]

And oh yes--if you hate television so much, why are you even bothering reading this blog? Go over to the New Criterion blog, elitist neo-con snob.

[solstice]

it's so i can poke a sharp stick into the eyes of morons like you, jeffries. i get great joy in finding thin-skinned, rabbit-eared, miscreants like you who think a good time is to sit, mindlessly, in front of a television absorbing the sort of crap that passes for adult entertainment. fortunately, when it comes to tv watchers, it isn't hard. hurry, markyboy. isn't it time for a "three's company" rerun. get your bag of cheetos and settle in..you wouldn't want to miss that episode again, would you little man? "honey, where's the remote?"

[Mark Jeffries]

I was watching Bill Moyers and "Democracy Now!" this morning--and at least I don't think I'm ee cummings.

Oh yes, I also watched "Dancing" last night, when I came home after being honored by a theater company for my volunteering for them for many years--how about not stereotyping me, bright boy?

[cmarshalldavis]

because you fit the stereotype dim boy.

[Brian Gambrell]

TV Execs on all of the networks are notorious for killing great shows. Remember that Star Trek was canceled but was brought back due to huge fan support. However, I don't think any level of fan support is enough to get a show back on the air. For example, I fell in love with the Fox series "Firefly" but it got axed after a few episodes (the movie "Serenity" pales in comparison.) The amazing word of mouth on DVD sales was enough to get it a movie deal, but not make on TV as a weekly series.

I really got into Jericho, but it is apparently going to die. Jericho had the most inventive storyline in a while. It had characters to care about, and the show wasn't afraid to kill characters that left you saying "Wow. I can't believe they just did that."

I know only watch "Criminal Minds," "CSI," "My Name is Earl," "The Office," and "Avatar: The Last Airbender (its a fantastic cartoon on Nick.) Any other time, the TV is either off or we're watching "Cops" or "Dangerous Police Chases" just to feel like we're not getting cheating for paying that confiscatory rate for cable.

I think the execs need to come up with a more reliable way to track TV viewership. I don't think the rating system accurately reflects how many people are actually watching a series anymore with the advent of DVR, iTunes, etc.