NBC's real motive in courting Stewart

Or at least my educated guess.

There was news on Monday from Mount Olympus — or what passes for Mount Olympus in beautiful downtown Burbank — that NBC Universal chairman Jeff Zucker "recently wined and dined" satirical news anchor Jon Stewart and his agent in what was obviously an attempt to curry favor with the hottest personality in late-night television.

A network source told Ben Grossman at Broadcasting and Cable magazine that Zucker and his lieutenant, Marc Graboff, "didn’t focus on pitching any specific role at the dinner meeting. ‘They just made their interest known in finding a way to do business together if Jon was ever available.’” Oh, like say … in 2009?? 

You don't need a degree from an expensive four-year college in the Northeast to know what's going on here. But many observers have drawn what I think is the wrong conclusion from NBC's interest in Stewart.

As you know, in two years Conan O'Brien is scheduled to make his move from hosting Late Night to taking over the Tonight Show after the contractually agreed to retirement of Jay Leno. NBC has been grooming current late-late night host Carson Daly for O'Brien's current job. They've given him a band and wacky sketches to do. But despite continuous improvement in the ratings at 2 in the morning, it should be obvious by now that NBC is in for a serious downgrade when Daly moves to 1 in the morning. There is a difference between prodding people past their bedtimes and coddling the insomniacs of America, and Late Night spans that divide. It takes a singular talent to man that bridge and Carson Daly, whatever his other attributes, is not that man.

So that explains why NBC is talking. But why in the world would Jon Stewart be listening? Consider. His show currently airs an hour and a half before Conan O'Brien's show. The number of televisions in use — what industry folks call HUT levels — are much higher at 10 p.m. in the Midwest than 11:30 p.m. Not only that, the Daily Show currently airs four times a day on Comedy Central.   It draws about 2 million people on its first telecast, and by the time those additional audiences are added up, Stewart has been seen by far more people than Conan is on NBC, even on a good night. 

Then there's the fact that NBC is in fourth place, and if it's not careful, it's going to get passed by Univision.  Jimmy Kimmel made a joke last month at the ABC upfront presentation that NBC was really big on its cable networks — in fact the rumor was that NBC was going to become a cable network. 

Where is the upside here for Jon Stewart?

The answer, I think, is in the setup to Jimmy Kimmel's joke. Comedy Central is a general entertainment basic cable channel. NBC has one of those too.  It's called USA Network.  Zucker would love to have  The Daily Show — and, through Stewart's production company, the Colbert Report — on USA Network. With its superior placement on cable systems, and access to the NBC promotional machine, Stewart could become an even bigger star than he is now, without sacrificing any of his cable TV cachet.  And if Jon wanted to produce a prime-time special or (heaven forbid) sitcom, why, NBC Universal would love to have a first look at that, too.

As for Daly, he can continue to churn out cash after Conan churns out even more cash. And then NBC can recruit another quickly fading hipster to take his place at the hour reserved for, in Tom Snyder's memorable phrase, the jokers and the smokers.

Comments

[stu]

I also assumed part of the idea was keeping Stewart away from the other networks.

[moochy]

I hate to be a contrarian (actually, I don't), but there seem to have so many inaccuracies and so much hearsay attached to this story since it broke in Broadcasting & Cable a couple of days ago that I don't know why anyone should believe anything that's been said or hypothesized. All I've heard that I believe is, Jon Stewart has tremendous executive power at Comedy Central. He's more or less the reason CC agreed to have its shows join the Writers Guild this year. And he's been given almost complete freedom on his shows' content. I can't imagine he'd bite at anything USA could offer him unless NBC would guarantee him similar influence.

I also don't believe his salary would be much better at USA than it is at CC--yeah, GE/NBC may have jurisdiction over USA, but CC is related to CBS/owned by Viacom, and they still don't have the kind of budget Stewart deserves. On top of all this, NBC is going to have to come up with an offer CC really can't refuse if they think they're buying the TDS/TCR franchise. Ever since Bill Maher left CC and took Politically Incorrect with him, CC has learned to hang onto their cash cows like grim death (and isn't Colbert contracted with them through 2010, anyway?).

Yours is an adventurous theory, but if Jon really wants to move--I have my doubts--I think he'll hold out for the big boys.

[Aaron]

And this, my friends, is why I post -- to smoke out my readers who know more than I do.

It doesn't answer the question, why would Jeff Zucker even try for Jon Stewart, but it certainly provides a number of excellent reasons why Stewart would turn him and any other suitor down cold.

Just one correction, though ... there are no more "big boys" in late night.

[billybob]

heres the real reason...leno is a cash cow...
extrapolate the numbers of comedy central and
a major network and you see big bucks are
at work. Conan can't move the dial on
ratings at 10:30 central. His posture is just
too out there. Stewart can not only do the
best comedy right now but he can also interview
serious guests.
conan is history if stewart decided to
bolt cmedy central. It will happen...nbc
cant lose late night too and with conans
stupidity they lose too much quality.
stewart takes leno's place...and nbc tells
conan they will spice up his package...
stewart aint going anywhere after 10:30
....why killhimself in a later time slot...
stewart to replace leno...its the only way
nbc keeps late nite strong.

[Marvin]

One thing is for sure and that's that NBC has ZERO respect for Daly. I've only seen snippets of his show, but in one he commented on a congratulations card from the front office that has a pretty aggregious error (wrong name, incorrect anniversary date, or something similar).

[Kenton]

Tom Shales had a very interesting article about the late-night talk show wars on his TV Week blog recently (entitled "And I am telling you he's not going;" the "he" being Leno).

According to Shales, Leno has been having third and fourth thoughts about vacating the Tonight Show - contract be damned.

Added to this is the fact that Craig Ferguson has been slowly gaining on Conan in the ratings. This begs the question: why would NBC dump ratings winner Leno for Conan, given Conan's diminishing returns and (most recently) lackluster show?

Other factors:

- Leno would almost certainly go to ABC or Fox immediately, perhaps competing directly against Conan.

- NBC would have to pay Conan some kind of multi-million-dollar penalty if it reneged on his contract. Shales says it could be as high as $40 million.

I worked on Conan as a research intern the first year he was on the air. Among my co-workers was the daughter of NBC head honcho Robert Wright. I recall her telling me that NBC had offered Greg Kinnear Conan's job. Had Kinnear said "yes," Conan would've been fired on the spot. That's how close it came for poor Conan (as he was thought of at the time).

NBC has a history of treating its talent shabbily (see Letterman), so anything could happen here. This is shaping up to be pretty interesting -- Bill Carter should be gearing up to write the Late Shift part II.

If Stewart is to take any late night show...It is to replace his hero Letterman at CBS...

[Olas]

I think they should replace Leno with Stewart, not Conan. I honestly do not care a whole lot for Conan and will probably not watch the Tonight show when he takes over.

[Aaron]

A little ratings context:

http://groups.google.com/group/tvbarn2/browse_thread/thread/6d745ba85e8e305

[smartman]

NBC should start a series called Desperate Executives, a real time reality show.

It took Jay Leno years to get the kind of Paducah-ness that Johhny Carson was born with and that Conan will never have. Since Johnny left, that program has never been the same. It's not that Jay is so good as much as Letterman is painfull to watch. If Conan moves into the slot, which I doubt, the
ratings will drop faster than Paris Hilton's panties at Pure. Jay may stay at NBC as long as Bob Barker stayed at TPIR.

Both John Stewart and Steven Colbert are far too intelligent for "network" broadcasting. I can't see them dumbing down their schtick so that Bob and Erma Q. Public in Des Moines can comprehendo I'm sure they can milk the CC for more moolah since their departure would be titanic for CC

[HeyNowHank]

If NBC reneges on the 2009 handover, it will be a PR nightmare of Titanic proportions. Conan will be the martyr like Letterman was in 1993, only more so because Letterman was never publicly offered The Tonight Show. At least with Letterman, they could say that nothing was really in writing. In fact, if the NBC execs are that dumb, Conan will be pushed into Dave's outstretched arms (or FOX, ABC).
Boy, that whole 5-year notice deal sure was a bad idea.

[Thomas]

Hank, I don't think it'd be the same story all over again. I think the consensus the first time was that Letterman was better than Leno. In 2007, Leno is better than Conan (and better than Letterman). Sad but true.

[Artie]

Huh? Leno's show is almost unwatchable. George Lopez is right...the interviews are more cringe worthy than anything on "The Office." That said, I think Conan's show has been slumping for the past year or so...must be that same 13th year curse that bit Letterman in 1995. Slump or no slump, Conan and Dave (and even Craig and Jimmy) are magnitudes better than Jay. Only Terry Moran and his "Don't feel sorry for the Duke students" shtick comes off worse than Jay.
Poor Jay...on YouTube there must be dozens of clips of him in the 80's, sharp as a whip...

[matt stechel]

agree with the dude who posted that if stewert is going to take over a network spot--it'd be Letterman's spot...makes sense, comedy central is viacom (and so is cbs)...zucker might be sniffing around...but stewert loves comedy central...he and the net practically built each other into respectability...he won't be quick to part with them...especially since Viacom is his ticket to replace Letterman on CBS...besides Stewert can smell Bull S--t from miles away...which means he should know well enough to stay far far the hell away from royal screw ups like Zucker, et al. Stewert will do the right thing the way Letterman did when he stuck with CBS instead of ousting Ted Koppel at Nightline back in '02 when ABC was courting him. you can take that to the bank. NBC will find a way to screw someone over though...hate to say it given how much good programming they've given (and are still giving) but its true...history repeats. besides all that...what's the deal with Jimmy Fallon saying he's gonna be Conan's replacement???

Do you guys think Jon would take the 12:30 job on NBC? Surely the suits would be seriously squirming with some of his very sharp-elbowed commentary? I hope that he resists temptation and stays on basic cable and retains his outsider persona. I just can't imagine anything good of him coming to NBC. Not that Comedy Central is run by Amnesty International or anything, but he runs a pretty free-wheeling, and quite popular show there.

[Unindicted Co-conspirator]

Here's one thing everyone forgets: Before Leno got the Tonight Show, Letterman only worked four days a week. For the last 13 years, he's worked five nights a week. Granted, sometimes he tapes two shows in one day to have a four day work week, sometimes he's done that twice a week to have a three day workweek.
Both of them are wearing themselves out!
You can really see that in both of them. Leno's Friday monologue is often atrocious. Watch next Monday, after he comes back with a week off, that night usually will have an excellent monologue, the writers have had all that time for new jokes.
That's why Carson cut back over the years.
First he forced the network to dump the 15 minute prologue that ran in only NYC & Chicago, then he cut the show to one hour from 90 minutes, then to four days, then to three days.
Carson only went back to five nights a week the last year he was on. And he had a two week forced "vacation" caused by the riots in early May 1992, caused by the Rodney King verdict, just before his final show at the end of the month.
The smartest thing both CBS/Letterman & NBC/Leno could do would be to come to some kind of understanding that each only works four days a week with new shows, but one goes Monday-Thursday & the other goes Tuesday-Friday., so there's only three days a week with overlap.
As to the rest, Leno is an horrendous interviewer, the "interviews" are totally pre-scripted, with both parties knowing both the Q&A!
Letterman is a great interviewer & he won't allow the guest to dictate terms as to what questions may or may not be asked.
He has asked numerous guest questions they don't want to be asked, Janet Jackson for example, who sort of said he wasn't supposed to ask that question [about the nipple at the Super Bowl].

If Jon Stewart were to get Leno's job, my guess is that Letterman would retire a couple of months later & Conan would get that job.
NBC would just pay Leno to do nothing & either Conan wouldn't get as big a breakup fee or CBS would buy out his contract from NBC & pay the fee.