Remind me again why dumping "Nightline" for Leno is a good idea

UPDATED: "Nightline" also beat Letterman in the 18-49 demo. See below.

For the second week in a row, "ABC News Nightline" beat "Late Show with David Letterman" in total viewers, and the week of July 14, Letterman was airing five new shows. (For the week of July 7, "Nightline" beat a week of "Late Show" repeats.) It also beat Letterman among adults ages 25-54 and even ages 18-49.

As I'll explain below, comparing ABC's numbers to the other networks is a bit of an apples-oranges game. But it can no longer be denied that in viewers and 25-54, and some weeks 18-49, "Nightline" has made it a race for second place. What was considered a fluke just eight months ago is now a full-on trend.

It is now unequivocally clear that ABC's decision in 2005 to send Ted Koppel to pasture — in place of Terry Moran, Cynthia McFadden and Martin Bashir, above — and to replace his single-topic format with something zippier, has delivered as promised. So the question for ABC's entertainment division is whether Jay Leno will also deliver as promised on what has been rumored to be a bank-busting talent deal to bring him over as host of a new late-night hour, replacing "Nightline," in 2010 after his NBC deal expires.

Here are the numbers for July 14 from Nielsen and ABC:

                      TOTAL VIEWERS     A25-54/Rtg        A18-49/Rtg

ABC “Nightline”        3,080,000       1,380,000/ 1.1    1,120,000 / .9

CBS “Late Show”        2,950,000       1,220,000/ 1.0      980,000 / .7

NBC “Tonight”          4,340,000       1,770,000/ 1.4    1,510,000 / 1.2

Those numbers reflect ABC's half hour versus CBS's and NBC's full hours. The full ABC release is below.

As I argued earlier this week, the timetable for the NBC late night transition totally favors Conan O'Brien. If he and NBC play their cards properly, and I think they will, and if Leno goes to ABC, it is highly possible he will be where "Nightline" is now, going toe-to-toe with Letterman. I thought those days were behind Jay.

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According to Nielsen Media Research for the week of July 14, 2008, ABC News’ “Nightline” outperformed CBS’ “Letterman” among Total Viewers and Adults 25-54 for the second week in a row. This is “Nightline’s” thirteenth victory over “Letterman” among the key A25-54 demographic this season and the tenth victory (plus two ties) over CBS among Total Viewers. “Nightline” also increased 3rd quarter to date, while the competition declined.

The program also continues to grow compared to last year among Total Viewers and Adults 25-54 while the competition declines double-digits. With 1.38 million Adults 25-54, “Nightline” grew 3% compared to the same week last year-- the seventh week in a row “Nightline” has experienced growth or stayed even in the key demo. In comparison, “Letterman” declined 29% and “Leno” dropped 21% vs. the same week one year ago.

Among Total Viewers, the program posted 3.08 million, a 7% increase compared to last year while “Letterman” declined 16% and “Leno” declined 14%.

“Nightline” also continues to close the gaps with CBS’ “Letterman” and NBC’s “Leno” among Total Viewers and Adults 25-54. Season to date, “Nightline” closed the Adults 25-54 gap with “Letterman” by 79%, and with “Leno” by 51%. “Nightline” also closed the total viewing gap with CBS by 60%, with NBC by 37% season to date. Year to date, “Nightline” closed the A25-54 gap with “Letterman” by 67%, with “Leno” by 40%. Finally, compared to the same week last year, “Nightline” closed the Adults 25-54 gap with “Leno” by 57% and by 41% among total viewers.

ABC News’ “Nightline” is anchored by Cynthia McFadden, Terry Moran and Martin Bashir. John Donvan and Vicki Mabrey are correspondents. James Goldston is the executive producer. The program airs weeknights at 11:35 p.m., ET on the ABC Television Network.

Comments

[Marshall Letcher]

Currently, Letterman appears to be a spent force and his show is riddled with product placements. I'm actually surprised that so many people still watch his show.

But, what if CBS ultimately replaces Letterman with a new show and a new host who really fires up the audience and late night ratings for their network? Then ABC might need Leno or someone with his star power to remain competitive in that time slot.

ML

[Wyn]

"Nightline" needs to be moved to a later time slot. At 11:30 p.m. most viewers are looking for lighter fare, i.e. Jay Leno which is why ABC is courting him for that hour. Jimmy Kimmel is funny in small doses (think Fox's NFL pre-game show) but he has never been able to provide an hour's worth of laughs. The Uncle Frank and Cousin Guillermo schtick grew old a long time ago.

As I have stated before on this forum, NBC is shooting themselves in the foot big time by bowing to O'Brien's pressure to give him "The Tonight Show." O'Brien is not Tonight Show material and unless he undergoes an extreme make-over, he will ultimately fail in that time slot. O'Brien's schtick is not for the main stream audience at 11:30 p.m.

Jay won't go gently into the good night. He'll be back Jan. 2, 2010 and his loyal fans will follow him wherever he lands. Jay Leno IS late night and NBC apparently plans to learn that the hard way.

[Greg Struss]

I am not sure what you mean about "product placements" on "Late Show." Although I have not been watching Dave and Company on a regular basis, I still find the show to be quite entertaining. At 61, David Letterman is just as sharp as Johnny was, is doing way more shows than Mr. Carson did, has MORE competition, and his interviews are probably the best there are among shows of that genre.

With that said, I do not forsee CBS renewing his 31.5 million dollar plus yearly contract unless the show starts performing better.

Conan will do just fine and yes, NBC blew it with passing Jay off. Like it or not, Jay Leno has done a great job with "Tonight," even though I favor Dave.

My prediction:

Jay Leno on ABC
Jimmy Kimmel Follows or goes over to FOX (no one is talking about what the ABC O & Os will do with "Oprah" in late night. In Chicago, WLS delays "Jimmy Kimmel Live an hour)

Dave remains on CBS
Conan does respectable on NBC
Jimmy Fallon gets his butt kicked by Craig Furguson

[TV Viewer]

Aaron - I am surprised at you because you should know better than to buy into this ABC spin. Nightline is a half hour show - the available audience in late night drops dramatically every 15 minutes.

The only fair ratings comparison to make is to compare Nightline to Letterman (and Leno's) FIRST half hour. I think you will find that both Dave and Jay beat them handily.

[Aaron]

The disclaimers are in my story -- but if the audiences dropped as "dramatically" as you say, wouldn't that mean Conan and Kimmel and Craig would have "dramatically" lower audience levels?

In fact they do not. Last month, according to Nielsen, HUT levels in New York City dropped from 46 percent of homes at 11:30 p.m. to 43 percent, then 39 percent, then 36 percent for the last quarter hour. That's a little more than a fifth of the homes going beddy-bye ... a not-insignificant fraction, to be sure, but hardly so dramatic that it requires completely discounting ABC's figures.

[David Sadle]

I really used to like Dave and thought like many he should have been given The Tonight Show. I no longer watch Dave or really like him. He has turned his show into a liberal political outlet which is not funny or original.

[mattack]

How is Letterman's show a liberal political outlet?

I'm also unsure of the "product placements" people mention. They do make a lot of jokes about real products, but if those are _real_ product placements, then I guess I'm not against them of this type. (e.g. the 7-11 "CEO" talking about fake free promos.)