Sorry, but you're wrong about Conan

Scores of confident readers continue to predict gloom and doom for Conan O'Brien (shown here on the zipline) when he takes over Jay Leno's time period. I hear from them on the comments, I hear from them through email and I hear from them on the radio. Best I can tell, however, almost all the readers are reaching this unambiguous conclusion from polling data that they conducted on themselves.

And the more feedback I get, the more convinced I am that I'm right: Conan O'Brien will weather the transition to the "Tonight Show" just fine.

As I argued earlier, the lag time between O'Brien signing on at NBC and Leno signing on at a rival network will greatly advantage the redhead. So bear that in mind as I break down Conan's first year into the three likeliest scenarios.

Worst-case scenario: Conan O'Brien loses 40 percent of his audience. In 1993, he took over a show that was regularly getting a 2.5 rating and promptly lost a bunch of viewers. Ratings dipped to 1.5 at low ebb, the show was getting 13-week renewals and Tom Shales was calling for Conan's head. By the time I entered the scene, the worst was over, and David Letterman — perhaps the biggest beneficiary of O'Brien's shaky start — graciously appeared as a guest on the new "Late Night," giving the show a huge credibility boost.

That was February 28, 1994. Conan had been on the air exactly five and a half months. Jay Leno won't be anywhere near ready to go back on ABC by that point. NBC will keep him off the air for at least four months, and then he'll need time to set up shop and get the affiliates in line.

In order to realize the worst-case scenario, O'Brien would have to approximate his face-plant of 1993, and that is highly unlikely. Whatever you think of his on-air style — which he will tone down, mark my words, at 11:30 (ET) — he no longer lacks confidence on camera.

In addition, young demographics were not widely measured or bragged about in 1993. NBC used to do periodic research into the viewing of Letterman's "Late Night" in college dorms just to shore up the faulty Nielsen data. Nowadays, Nielsen measures dorms and PVRs and online and every other way that young people consume video. NBC will undoubtedly find that the data justifies its claim that Conan was a great pick for "Tonight Show" host. Meanwhile, Leno only draws the oldest and least appealing audiences to ABC, while driving away all those viewers who preferred "Nightline."

Better-case scenario: Conan O'Brien will lose 15-20 percent of his audience as host of "The Tonight Show" — but the attrition would almost entirely come from viewers over the age of 50. From what I can tell, NBC isn't really interested in what people over 50 think about their programs. Haven't you noticed? "The Office" and "Chuck" and "Friday Night Lights" are coming back for another season on NBC. "Criminal Intent" and "Journeyman" aren't (though "CI" is airing new episodes Sundays on USA). With the possible exception of the "Today" show, the whole network is geared to viewers under 40, proudly. Their executives don't even seem to care if they compete in the 25-54 age bracket.

Hey, I don't like it either! Last week NBC had a chance to show 200 influential TV critics the third-season premiere of "Heroes." Many of us went to bat for that show two years ago: It was my top pick at the "Watch the Pilots with Aaron" event in 2006. But I'm over 40 now, so I don't matter. Instead, NBC took the screener down to Comic-Con and showed it to all the teenagers who already have season passes to "Heroes."

Two weeks ago, O'Brien matched Letterman's audience in viewers ages 18-49 for the first time in more than nine years. Craig Ferguson has caught O'Brien in total viewers but his biggest gains have come from older viewers. The projected audience for "Tonight with Conan" may not include you, but it will almost certainly include a lot of the viewers NBC wants to keep.

Best-case scenario: Conan will figure it out, and minimize losses of any audience. Even now, he and his highly seasoned staff — almost all of whom confirmed by the June 15 deadline that they were, in fact, going to California with him — are plotting what parts of the show to leave behind with new "Late Night" host Jimmy Fallon. (At Comic-Con, Robert Smigel predicted the Masturbating Bear would be left in New York.)

Take a look at this clip from the last time O'Brien hosted the Emmys, in 2006. This thing is so far out of his comfort zone, it would be unfunny — except it was hilarious. Now, if he can pull this off, what leads you to believe he can't pull off a switch to one hour earlier on NBC? Other than the fact you hate him?

Trouble At NBC - Conan At The Emmys - Click here for funny video clips