Sorry, but you're wrong about Conan

Scores of confident readers continue to predict gloom and doom for Conan O'Brien (shown here on the zipline) when he takes over Jay Leno's time period. I hear from them on the comments, I hear from them through email and I hear from them on the radio. Best I can tell, however, almost all the readers are reaching this unambiguous conclusion from polling data that they conducted on themselves.

And the more feedback I get, the more convinced I am that I'm right: Conan O'Brien will weather the transition to the "Tonight Show" just fine.

As I argued earlier, the lag time between O'Brien signing on at NBC and Leno signing on at a rival network will greatly advantage the redhead. So bear that in mind as I break down Conan's first year into the three likeliest scenarios.

Worst-case scenario: Conan O'Brien loses 40 percent of his audience. In 1993, he took over a show that was regularly getting a 2.5 rating and promptly lost a bunch of viewers. Ratings dipped to 1.5 at low ebb, the show was getting 13-week renewals and Tom Shales was calling for Conan's head. By the time I entered the scene, the worst was over, and David Letterman — perhaps the biggest beneficiary of O'Brien's shaky start — graciously appeared as a guest on the new "Late Night," giving the show a huge credibility boost.

That was February 28, 1994. Conan had been on the air exactly five and a half months. Jay Leno won't be anywhere near ready to go back on ABC by that point. NBC will keep him off the air for at least four months, and then he'll need time to set up shop and get the affiliates in line.

In order to realize the worst-case scenario, O'Brien would have to approximate his face-plant of 1993, and that is highly unlikely. Whatever you think of his on-air style — which he will tone down, mark my words, at 11:30 (ET) — he no longer lacks confidence on camera.

In addition, young demographics were not widely measured or bragged about in 1993. NBC used to do periodic research into the viewing of Letterman's "Late Night" in college dorms just to shore up the faulty Nielsen data. Nowadays, Nielsen measures dorms and PVRs and online and every other way that young people consume video. NBC will undoubtedly find that the data justifies its claim that Conan was a great pick for "Tonight Show" host. Meanwhile, Leno only draws the oldest and least appealing audiences to ABC, while driving away all those viewers who preferred "Nightline."

Better-case scenario: Conan O'Brien will lose 15-20 percent of his audience as host of "The Tonight Show" — but the attrition would almost entirely come from viewers over the age of 50. From what I can tell, NBC isn't really interested in what people over 50 think about their programs. Haven't you noticed? "The Office" and "Chuck" and "Friday Night Lights" are coming back for another season on NBC. "Criminal Intent" and "Journeyman" aren't (though "CI" is airing new episodes Sundays on USA). With the possible exception of the "Today" show, the whole network is geared to viewers under 40, proudly. Their executives don't even seem to care if they compete in the 25-54 age bracket.

Hey, I don't like it either! Last week NBC had a chance to show 200 influential TV critics the third-season premiere of "Heroes." Many of us went to bat for that show two years ago: It was my top pick at the "Watch the Pilots with Aaron" event in 2006. But I'm over 40 now, so I don't matter. Instead, NBC took the screener down to Comic-Con and showed it to all the teenagers who already have season passes to "Heroes."

Two weeks ago, O'Brien matched Letterman's audience in viewers ages 18-49 for the first time in more than nine years. Craig Ferguson has caught O'Brien in total viewers but his biggest gains have come from older viewers. The projected audience for "Tonight with Conan" may not include you, but it will almost certainly include a lot of the viewers NBC wants to keep.

Best-case scenario: Conan will figure it out, and minimize losses of any audience. Even now, he and his highly seasoned staff — almost all of whom confirmed by the June 15 deadline that they were, in fact, going to California with him — are plotting what parts of the show to leave behind with new "Late Night" host Jimmy Fallon. (At Comic-Con, Robert Smigel predicted the Masturbating Bear would be left in New York.)

Take a look at this clip from the last time O'Brien hosted the Emmys, in 2006. This thing is so far out of his comfort zone, it would be unfunny — except it was hilarious. Now, if he can pull this off, what leads you to believe he can't pull off a switch to one hour earlier on NBC? Other than the fact you hate him?

Trouble At NBC - Conan At The Emmys - Click here for funny video clips

Comments

[DKC]

The fact that I hate him is plenty for me.

[Aaron]

This just in (via NBC):

SEASON-TO-DATE AVERAGES

ADULTS 18-49

11:35 p.m. ET
NBC "Tonight," 1.4/6
CBS "Late Show," 1.1/5
ABC "Nightline," 1.0/4

12:05 a.m. ET
ABC "Kimmel," 0.6/3

12:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Late Night," 0.8/4
CBS "Late Late Show," 0.6/3

1:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Last Call," 0.4/3

TOTAL VIEWERS

11:35 p.m. ET
NBC "Tonight," 4.8 million viewers
CBS "Late Show," 3.6 million viewers
ABC "Nightline," 3.4 million viewers

12:05 a.m. ET
ABC "Kimmel," 1.7 million viewers

12:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Late Night," 1.9 million viewers
CBS "Late Late Show," 1.7 million viewers

1:35 a.m. ET
NBC "Last Call," 1.1 million viewers

SELECTED CABLE RESULTS, WEEK OF JULY 21-25

NATIONAL ADULT 18-49 RATING

Comedy Central, 11 p.m. ET, "The Daily Show," 0.6
Comedy Central, 11:30 p.m. ET, "The Colbert Report," 0.5

Adult Swim, 11:30 p.m.-12:30 a.m. ET, 0.8
Adult Swim, 12:30-1:30 a.m. ET, 0.5

Each adult 18-49 rating point equals 1.31 million viewers

TOTAL VIEWERS

Comedy Central, 11 p.m. ET, "The Daily Show," 1.4 million
Comedy Central, 11:30 p.m. ET, "The Colbert Report," 1.0 million

Adult Swim, 11:30 p.m.-12:30 a.m. ET, 2.2 million
Adult Swim, 12:30-1:30 a.m. ET, 1.2 million

[TC]

I can't wait for the switch to Conan. I've never understood Jay Leno's popularity and look forward to seeing him go. Talk about grating. Now maybe I'll actually make a point to tune in to something after the news. Conan is hilarious!

[Teresa]

I don't hate Conan. I just don't like his comedy style. If Leno is off the air I will go for Letterman.

[Wyn]

I agree, I have nothing personal against Conan O'Brien. He's just not funny. He reminds me of an elementary school kid dying to get someone's attention by doing the most outrageous thing possible. And his hair-do is the corniest sight gag around. Conan simply is NOT funny.

When Jay leaves, Conan will definitely enjoy increased ratings. Viewers at that hour will have to choose between the lesser of two evils. Hell, who wants to watch David Letterman/will it float/Paul the bandleader banter?

Yes, I will concede that Conan will enjoy increased ratings. Not for long though. Just as Conan is settling in, BOOM, Jay Leno returns on another network! Conan will kiss it good-bye at that point.

And Aaron with all due respect, that video from the Emmys, wasn't "hilarious" not even remotely.

[Paul from Richmond, KY]

Then how do you explain the fact that Ferguson - who compared to Conan has been on a pretty short time - has almost the same sized audience? Including the 18-49s. (The answer: unlike O'Brien, Ferguson conveys that he's having a LOT of fun.) The 18-49s who are with Letterman will likely stay there.

[Paul, that gap of 0.2 in 18-49 is not trivial. Ferguson made up the viewership gap at the high end of 18-49 and with 50-plusers.--AB]

I'm not polling myself, I'm comparing comedy styles. AS one example, the old Conan was significantly funnier than the current Conan. Nowadays, practically every time a joke fails, he launches into his, "the reason the joke failed is that, in reality, I'm just a creepy guy, and it's really only a lame show" act. He still occassionally does his widely criticized "I'm a creepy fanboy" act with an attractive actress. And his writers stunts - when they come out in front of the camera - rarely get more than nervous titters (unless you count the prerehearsed screaming when the applause sign comes up at the end). None of that, nor "Masturbating Bear" will play to Leno's audience. I know, he won't use that bit, but if he had better material, don't you think he'd already be using it? The irony is: Jimmy Fallon would probably fit right in on the Tonight Show and could probably draw more young viewers. But, it's the NBC brain trust making these decisions, and that says it all.

[roy]

Note that Nielsen does technically measure college dorms. They measure "college students living away from home," some of whom may live in dorms. This viewing is credited back to the students home(even if the dorm is 3000 miles away.

Also, note that the use of DVRs to time shift Monday-Friday late night programming is almost non existent.

[Kenton]

I'm a college instructor, who once worked on the Conan O'Brien show as a research intern (his first season on the air).

Even while working on the show, I was among those predicting his cancellation; the poorly delivered jokes, the lack of chemistry with Andy, the conceptual comedy sketches that got few laughs, etc.

Over a decade later, Conan not only survives, but to my students (with no memory of Carson, and only a fleeting idea of how great Letterman was in his heyday on NBC), he's the king of late night.

As a result, I expect a spike in younger viewers for Conan when he makes the jump; as Aaron points out, they're the only ones who matter to networks these days (as they're the hardest to reach: videogames, Internet, etc).

But here's the rub: "the kids" don't want to see a toned-down Conan. If the Tonight Show does to Conan what it did to Leno (basically, get rid of "the bite"), Conan might very well get high ratings, but will lose the younger viewers with a tamer show.

[Gary]

I really like Conan, but that clip you posted is not that funny. It’s inside-baseball. It’s very Conan (and even Letterman)

Leno would never waste the masses time with this. This clip demonstrates nothing regarding Conan having broad appeal.

(That wasn't my argument.--AB)

[Gary]

Aaron, I take your point. So you’re saying that normal ratings don’t matter anymore, and that success is purely based on demos?

The problem here is that perception will matter a great deal when it comes to the brand of The Tonight Show (as opposed to prime-time experiments) and that it won’t matter if Leno/ABC are making less money. It will be seen as PR disaster for NBC if Tonight doesn’t continue its overall dominance against CBS and ABC.

[Aaron]

Except you're assuming Leno will enter the fray immediately. He won't. In fact, the first real ratings competition between ABC, CBS and NBC, all with one-hour entertainment late night programs starting after local news, won't happen until the spring or more likely summer of 2010, and Leno won't be seen or heard from for several months after Conan takes the reins of Tonight.

"It will be seen as PR disaster for NBC" ... really? With so many people predicting doom and despair for NBC the moment Conan takes the stage of the Tonight Show, holding onto first place by any margin won't be seen as a great victory?

[matt stechel]

aaron i'm with you

conan's gonna do just fine as host...in fact if anything i see him taking some audience out of letterman since a lot of people i know here on the east coast first watch letterman before jumping to conan. (and really at this point i'm pretty much watching letterman more as a habbit or out of loyalty then anything else, i know because since colbert show started, gradually that show overtook the first half hour of letterman at least in my viewing habbits it had. used to be daily show, letterman, conan, now its daily show, colbert, letterman, conan....) conan has a fierce following among the younger gen, (people younger than me and i'm 25) he's gonna do better than just fine, he's gonna continue to rule the timeslot until Jon Stewert takes over CBS in 2010. (possibly, and by then its likely conan may even maintain his lead.)

[Paul from Richmond, KY]

Aaron, if Leno goes to ABC, you're going to have more than .2 to worry about! That Conan/Craig comparison was only one part of my view. The young numbers seem to be the principal hope in yours. Maybe more of them migrate to cable programs, like Adult Swim. Maybe, by this time next year, there may be another big cable youth cult phenomenon to draw away more of those viewers. I think your trying to get the numbers to justify your Conan love. Good luck with that!

[Markley]

Aaron, I don't disagree with your analysis - but I find Conan unwatchable now and wonder if I'll like him any better at 11:30. Will he bring along that little pantomime he opens the show with - jumping around and stitching his hip - which would be lame on a kid's show and is totally out of place here? How about his lazy refusal to do an opening monolog - you'd think that even if he doesn't have the smarts to do one he could get his writers to put one together for him. How about the moving lips in still photos of celebrities - don't you find that grating?

[John]

I'm sick of the mentality that somehow a late-night talk show can't be as edgy for just being an hour earlier. 15 years ago I didn't like it when Dave "toned down" his show. It became an endless stream of celebrity shill-festing (with occasional signs of the old snarky Dave humor) that leaves no room for the Brother Theodores and Harvey Pekars of the world. Dave hated the monologue and was not that good at it, so padding it for 11:30 made no sense except for that damned "toning down" he felt compelled to do. Programmers should go back to Jack Paar and Steve Allen to see how toned down they were -- with exceptions for censorship, Paar and Allen were not as toned down as Johnny Carson made "Tonight."

[Aaron]

Hey Markley - if it's any consolation, I think a lot of the things that annoy you will be left in Studio 6A. Those things kind of work in a shoebox studio where the crowd, even now, sounds muted. It won't work in a bigger venue. Note that when he's taken his show on the road -- Chicago, the Emmys -- it's been much more streamlined.

As for the previous poster, who accuses me of using numbers to justify my projecting success for Conan O'Brien, um, guilty as charged. But doesn't the onus really rest on you to prove your point about his inevitable demise?

[Cheryl]

I watched Conan from his very poor beginning through his finally getting his stride. However, now all these years later he has aged, settled down with a wife and family, yet he sticks to that same moronic opening to his show. He has no chemistry with Max & even the audience seems to be embarrassed by some of the juvenile attempts at humor. It isn't that the coveted young demographic group don't deserve to be served, but they need it to come from someone closer to their age! More like Jimmy Fallon's age. I have always been a Leno fan, even when he did have to give up some of his edge to better fit the late show formula expected by the networks themselves. But I find the most wonderful host of this type program to be Craig Ferguson. He is witty and quick with a quip. Guests seem to be at ease sitting down at the desk with him. He makes it all seem effortless. And then I think we need to bring in a black woman to add some diversity to the late night groupings. So I vote for Wanda Sykes. She is wonderfully snarky without being overtly mean. So I think the late night pairings should be Leno/Ferguson, Stewart/Sykes & Kimmel/Fallon. I don't care which channel gets who. Letterman could just retire & Conan can go back to writing, or maybe join Carrot Top in Vegas (and his circus clown type props act remains fresh and funny). Either of these options might get Conan's "funny" back and then he could return and unseat one of these other hosts. I can still dream of my dream teams can't I?