Why Jay Leno won't need a disguise in 2009 - NBC is making him disappear

You may have heard that Jay Leno upped the ante yesterday at the NBC executive press conference, appearing in a prosthetic bald cap, beard and glasses looking like James Lipton's older brother and harassed the folks who write him those large checks with questions. And then, just like Jimmy Kimmel the week before, he ran out without taking any actual questions from actual reporters. NBC executives Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff took questions about Leno, but didn't give answers.

But I will. Based on the timetable revealed by NBC yesterday, I can estimate that Jay Leno will be off the air for a minimum of six months — and 10 to 12 months is more realistic — during which time Conan O'Brien will be allowed to find his sea legs, NBC will go into full promo mode to introduce America to its new late-night king, and the ratings will have time to fluctuate, give those of us in the media a few stories to write, and then, in all likelihood, settle down right where they are now: first place.

Here's how I break it down:

• NBC has announced that Leno's last "Tonight Show" will be Friday, May 29, 2009. Conan's first "Tonight Show," from his new stage at the Universal Studios backlot, will be Monday, June 1.

• NBC's Rick Ludwin confirmed for me this week that Leno is under contract with NBC until the fourth quarter of 2009. He cannot talk to any other network until then. Let's say Oct. 1, the first day of the quarter, is when Leno is released — right there that is a four-month head start for Conan.

• Assume there is a deal with ABC immediately — Oct. 6, the following Monday, let's say. Using the CBS example from 1993 as our model, David Letterman was off the air just a little more than two months. He signed off June 24, 1993, from NBC and signed on at CBS August 30. But wait — CBS actually announced Letterman's move on Jan. 15, 1993 (obviously NBC has learned a lesson since then), so it's possible he could have been ready before the end of the summer, which was a natural time to launch a show, just before the fall premieres.
  
  Based on details I have learned about Conan's transition to L.A., I am estimating that it will take four solid months of work to hire a production team, find a facility and get it outfitted enough to do a show. Assume that much of Leno's crew will stay at NBC to work on "Tonight" (which will go on regardless of who's the host, making a jump with Leno a much chancier proposition). Debbie Vickers, his EP, is probably retiring. Based on that, I would say launching Leno into the February sweeps of 2010 is unlikely. May sweeps is a more realistic goal.

• The press will not focus on O'Brien alone, but on Jimmy Fallon, who is launching his show later in the summer.

Based on these real-world assumptions, it's fair to say that Jay Leno will be off television nearly a year before he will be able to compete against Conan O'Brien and David Letterman (and Stephen Colbert ... and Adult Swim) in late nights.

I'll have more to say about this later, but for now, I don't think that calendar favors Leno at all, regardless of what he wears.

UPDATE: I did have more to say! Read Remind me again why dumping Nightline for Leno is a good idea

• Related audio: I talked about the Leno transition on WBAL Radio this morning.

• Previously on TV Barn: Why Fallon will succeed