Why Jay Leno won't need a disguise in 2009 - NBC is making him disappear

You may have heard that Jay Leno upped the ante yesterday at the NBC executive press conference, appearing in a prosthetic bald cap, beard and glasses looking like James Lipton's older brother and harassed the folks who write him those large checks with questions. And then, just like Jimmy Kimmel the week before, he ran out without taking any actual questions from actual reporters. NBC executives Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff took questions about Leno, but didn't give answers.

But I will. Based on the timetable revealed by NBC yesterday, I can estimate that Jay Leno will be off the air for a minimum of six months — and 10 to 12 months is more realistic — during which time Conan O'Brien will be allowed to find his sea legs, NBC will go into full promo mode to introduce America to its new late-night king, and the ratings will have time to fluctuate, give those of us in the media a few stories to write, and then, in all likelihood, settle down right where they are now: first place.

Here's how I break it down:

• NBC has announced that Leno's last "Tonight Show" will be Friday, May 29, 2009. Conan's first "Tonight Show," from his new stage at the Universal Studios backlot, will be Monday, June 1.

• NBC's Rick Ludwin confirmed for me this week that Leno is under contract with NBC until the fourth quarter of 2009. He cannot talk to any other network until then. Let's say Oct. 1, the first day of the quarter, is when Leno is released — right there that is a four-month head start for Conan.

• Assume there is a deal with ABC immediately — Oct. 6, the following Monday, let's say. Using the CBS example from 1993 as our model, David Letterman was off the air just a little more than two months. He signed off June 24, 1993, from NBC and signed on at CBS August 30. But wait — CBS actually announced Letterman's move on Jan. 15, 1993 (obviously NBC has learned a lesson since then), so it's possible he could have been ready before the end of the summer, which was a natural time to launch a show, just before the fall premieres.
  
  Based on details I have learned about Conan's transition to L.A., I am estimating that it will take four solid months of work to hire a production team, find a facility and get it outfitted enough to do a show. Assume that much of Leno's crew will stay at NBC to work on "Tonight" (which will go on regardless of who's the host, making a jump with Leno a much chancier proposition). Debbie Vickers, his EP, is probably retiring. Based on that, I would say launching Leno into the February sweeps of 2010 is unlikely. May sweeps is a more realistic goal.

• The press will not focus on O'Brien alone, but on Jimmy Fallon, who is launching his show later in the summer.

Based on these real-world assumptions, it's fair to say that Jay Leno will be off television nearly a year before he will be able to compete against Conan O'Brien and David Letterman (and Stephen Colbert ... and Adult Swim) in late nights.

I'll have more to say about this later, but for now, I don't think that calendar favors Leno at all, regardless of what he wears.

UPDATE: I did have more to say! Read Remind me again why dumping Nightline for Leno is a good idea

• Related audio: I talked about the Leno transition on WBAL Radio this morning.

• Previously on TV Barn: Why Fallon will succeed

Comments

[Mark Jeffries]

And Chelsea Handler. Even if her act's recycled Kathy Griffin, she's doing at lest almost as well for E! as Stern was doing for them in late-night.

And I wouldn't be surprised if the Tribune stations/WGN America bring out someone else, unless Sam Zell was only interested in Leno.

[Wyn]

Your timeline suggests that Conan O'Brien's 4-month head start will cripple Leno in the long run. Highly doubt it.

Conan O'Brien is not a Jay Leno and Conan's quirky style is more suited to the 12:30 a.m. time slot where NBC should have left him, instead of bowing to pressure to give him the Tonight Show. NBC instead decided to shoot itself in the foot by letting Jay Leno leave.

And when it's all said and done, be it late 2009 or 2010, Jay Leno will come out on top whether he's at ABC or Fox or QVC! There's a reason that NBC's Tonight Show has been consistently on top and that reason is Jay Leno. Conan O'Brien won't last long. Will NBC go crawling back to Leno after they realize their mistake? Probably. Will Leno come back? Fat chance!

[Frank Valois]

You hit the nail on the head. Conan can not fill Jays shoes. I personally can not stand him (Conan) and if he takes over the Tonight show, I will go elsewhere or get to bed earlier at night. I have never gone to bed before a Tonight Show, but I guess I will get closer to my required 8 hours for the first time in years. I loved Johnny Carson also. Should Jay Leno have another show, on another network, I surely would watch it.

[MGL]

I concur with the comments about Conan's quirky personality. He ought to be on cable. For better or for worse, Leno will eventually conquer Conan and will once again reign over late night.

ML

[S. Bielfeldt]

Jay was always a much better stand-up than a talk-show host, and Conan is a much better writer than a host. Conan must learn to let his guests be the star - it really isn't about HIM. Carson understond.

[Untouchable2K]

I actually enjoying watching Conan better then jay. Jay is great, his jokes are funny, but the material is becoming bored. But Conan taking over, sounds cool with me. I wish jay the best.

[Linda]

I actually truly appreciate NBC's honesty with their viewers. Now I know that my particular demographic is irrelevant to them in favor of the under what 35-year olds. So they can keep their edgier less funnier shows without my older viewership. Oh yes, and my somewhat substantial advertising dollars. The baby boomers may not have youth on our side, but we do have money!
Oh yeah, and a sense of humor. The Tonight Show is the last remaining thing I watch on NBC - what a change from all those years when I could count on them for quality programming.
Lucikly, there are other options.

[wisdom]

I can't believe that photo is actually Jay. We all have known this day will come in 2009, NBC talked about it years ago.

[Stringplayer]

I will give up late night when Conan comes on. I love Jay so much better than Conan...it does seem like it is all about him and Jay genuinely likes his guests and lets them talk.
I hope Jay will appear on top of David Letterman who I really dislike...he's an idiot of the highest degree...and not a people person at all.

[lee1209]

I too think Leno is the best. O'Brian is good for State fairs but I have never been able to watch a full hour with him. What about Craig Fergeson from CBS? He is likeable and funny not like Letterman who maybe funny but surly not likeable. Any chance moving him to an earlier time slot. Get him to take Dave's place.

[Kyle]

Most of Leno's crew will not stay with Conan, the same way that most of Johnny Carson's crew didn't stay with Leno. Conan will bring his own team in.

Leno will be weaker on ABC, but Conan will absolutely bomb in the "Tonight" slot.

[kat huguenin]

I WILL WATCH LENO WHEREVER HE MOVES TO. I can't stand Conan. I think he is rude and obnoxious, much like Letterman. I'd like to see Craig Ferguson in a slot earlier and not on CBS because I live in Podunk, N.D. and have to get a waiver from the local CBS affilliate to access another station. The local affiliate will not grant the waiver. ???? Anyway, NBC is screwing the pooch in not keeping Leno.

[Orlando Ortiz]

Conan does not have the class or intellect that Jay has. That high jump in the air that he(Conan)does at the begining of each shows how mentaly infantil Conan is. I would rather watch something else like a grade "B" movie.
Conan probably reflects the lack of mental depth of the new American generation.

[Dmitri]

Conan has a very limited audience of him-like who actually find him funny. Therefore, I agree with one of the earlier posters, his slot should be much later. Moving him to the Tonight Show slot is a big mistake. I could never make it through his show, honestly. So boring and stupid. Jay, I hope you are back on the air as soon as possible. Will follow you whatever channel you happen to sign with. All the best!