When did Oprah jump the shark? When she said 'yes' to Obama - or 'no' to Jesus? Also, her May numbers
This is a follow-up to last week's posting about Oprah Winfrey's horrible July numbers. "Oprah" finished third and even fourth in markets across the U.S. for the first time in eons, maybe ever. Still, it was only the July 'book.' Many stations don't promote much during July because so many shows are in repeats and the May ratings book is a better indicator.
With that in mind, I decided to go back and look at the May ratings book, not just in KC but in all 53 big- and medium-sized "metered" markets tracked daily by Nielsen. Um ... those numbers aren't pretty either.
And many of you weighed in with your personal takes on when "Oprah" jumped the shark. I've reprinted some of those below. While some cited her embrace of Barack Obama, let's just say that Oprah and Rielle have a spiritual connection as well.
But first, the ratings. The whole reason "Oprah" is so fabulously rich and powerful is that TV stations make a lot of money off her. They rake in billions, and she gets her millions. Here's how it works: "Oprah" comes on the air, creates a rising tide, and all boats are lifted. Simple! Except when it doesn't happen ... then everybody gets soaked. For instance, according to Nielsen the Kansas City ABC affiliate, which has carried "Oprah" since 1988, finished second with its 5 p.m. newscast for the first time in 14 years in July.
The thinking is that, well, those were repeats (although she's done extremely well with repeats in the past). OK, so let's take it back to May. Below are the markets (Nielsen population ranking in parens) where the news following "Oprah" improved on her lead-in by at least one share point in the May book. That's the Oprah formula in reverse -- her show is supposed to be the higher number, on the assumption that some of her viewers will turn off or turn away after the show is over. But look:
(4) WPVI (Philadelphia) 1 share point improvement after "Oprah"
(5) WFAA (Dallas) 1 point
(10) KHOU (Houston) 1 point
(11) WXYZ (Detroit) 1 point
(14) KING (Seattle) 2 points
(15) WCCO (Minneapolis) 2 points
(19) WFTV (Orlando) 3 points
(20) KCRA (Sacramento) 5 points
(21) KSDK (St. Louis) 3 points
(22) WTAE (Pittsburgh) 6 points
(23) KGW (Portland) 6 points
(25) WSOC (Charlotte) 4 points
(28) WTVD (Raleigh) 2 points
(29) WFSB (Hartford) 2 points
(30) WSMV (Nashville) 1 point
(31) KMBC (Kansas City) 2 points
(32) WBNS (Columbus) 1 point
(36) WYFF (Greenville) 2 points
(37) KSAT (San Antonio) 6 points
(40) WBMA (Birmingham) 3 points
(44) KOAT (Albuquerque) 2 points
(47) WMC (Memphis) 3 points
(48) WHAS (Louisville) 3 points
(49) WJXT (Jacksonville) 2 points
(50) WIVB (Buffalo) 1 point
(51) KVUE (Austin) 3 points
(52) WJAR (Providence) 1 point
(58) WATE (Knoxville) 1 point
In more than half of the metered markets where news follows "Oprah," Winfrey wasn't delivering the goods even in May, when her show wasn't in reruns!
Why isn't this more widely noted? I think in part it's because Oprah is doing well in the big cities: New York, L.A., Atlanta and D.C. are four top-ten markets where the Oprah station gets a huge lift every day when she signs on, and a letdown when she signs off. (The conventional wisdom is that the station would be doing even worse without Oprah.) But once you start getting into smaller markets does the Oprah effect appear to be vanishing. In half of the markets ranked 11-20 and two thirds of those ranked 21-35 (including Kansas City), the afternoon newscast builds significantly off its "Oprah" lead-in. In Pittsburgh, Oprah averaged a 4.4 rating and 10 share in May, but the newscast that followed averaged a mighty 7.7 rating/16 share.
So why is middle America rejecting "Oprah"? Responses from readers suggest that at least some white evangelical women have stopped watching because of her alleged embrace of New Age spirituality and abandonment of her Baptist roots.
Kate Duckworth:
"I have heard nearly all of my friends and family say that they will never watch her show or read her magazine again due to her statements that 'there’s more than one way to heaven than through Jesus.' She has joined the ranks of those who want to 'find God within themselves,' which dismisses the sacrifice Jesus made on the cross in order to ensure our passage to heaven through forgiveness of sin. She’s been leaning this way for years but has gone too far this time and will not be winning us back unless she sincerely changes course and cleaves to the teachings she learned in Sunday School as a child (she was raised a Southern Baptist). Please keep in mind that we are not radical evangelicals or bible-thumpers and we show our Christianity more by demonstrating our faith than by beating people over the head with it. But we do know that there is only one way to heaven and we are insulted and disappointed that Oprah has chosen to believe such New Age nonsense. We will not support her influential empire which so leads vulnerable people down the wrong path."
Patricia Harves:
"One of the reasons for that is that Oprah has gone over the edge in promoting her personal New Age religion. She formerly referenced God, which many Christians, including myself, assumed to mean that she was Christian. We have learned otherwise in the last months, and no longer have any interest in watching her show."
Reba Williams:
"I was a supporter for Hillary, who would have made the best President."
Carol Kingery:
"Might I suggest that she lost a great deal of credibility when she jumped the shark by heavily promoting and sensationalizing the pregnant man story. For many years, I've seen an Oprah who stayed away from the tawdry, Jerry Springer-like stuff. Whenever she had a story that strayed over the edge, she was able to reeling it back in by showing compassion and another side of the story that the audience would never know about. I've always trusted her to inform me. But the pregnant man episode was when she jumped the shark. The lead-in commercials for it, the opening to the show... All of felt like a supermarket tabloid. It was misleading. If felt lied to. I lost a huge amount of respect for her."
Also read the comments below for a great insight from my old friend C.D. Thomas.
