Fearless Emmy predictions: Denny Crane. "House"! "30 Rock"! Denny Crane.

Here is one fearless prediction I am willing to venture about this year's Emmy Awards: "John Adams," the HBO miniseries that thrust us so effectively into the small world of the American colonies and the life of the republic's great founding family, will go home with at least eight trophies.

Want another? OK, "Mad Men," the show no self-respecting television critic has failed to praise effusively, will take home at least four Emmy Awards.

How can I make such bold forecasts? Easy... because those programs won those awards last week at the Creative Arts ceremony. It's unlikely you tune in for those -- they will air in heavily edited form Saturday night on E! -- but that is where the bulk of the Emmy hardware is actually handed out.

As for Sunday's prime-time Emmys telecast, well, that's not such an easy call. In fact, it's fair to say the categories are as wide open as they have been in years. With "The Sopranos" gone and the members of the TV Academy willing to invite basic cable channels like FX and AMC to the big dance, there may be some shocking twists to this year's Emmycast, which airs at 7 p.m. CT on ABC.

The Los Angeles Times' awards website, TheEnvelope.com, asked me to submit my predictions for the major awards being handed out. Here they are:

Best drama: "Lost" (ABC). It's possible "Mad Men" will pull out a hugely satisfying (to New Yorkers and TV critics) win, which may be why everyone is predicting it. I'm not so sure. The way "Lost" grabbed its mojo back this season would seem to put it in the win column again. Other finalists include "House," which is of course terrific and still has yet to win the big prize, but which in my view had a very uneven season.

Best comedy: "30 Rock" (NBC). Last year's winner only faces serious competition from the 2006 winner, NBC's "The Office." If Emmy voters were willing to fall hard for Tina Fey's madcap insider office comedy after just one season, it seems to figure that they'd fall for it again.

Actor, drama: Hugh Laurie, "House" (Fox). I don't understand why the academy hasn't honored Laurie, whose force of personality makes this show possible, not to mention a huge hit for Fox. He's won other trophies, like the Television Critics Association award (twice), so I like to think it's his turn for Emmy. But you can never count out multi-winner James Spader for ABC's "Boston Legal" (though I wish they would). I wouldn't be heartbroken if Bryan Cranston's amazing turn as a meth-cooking chemistry teacher in AMC's "Breaking Bad," or Jon Hamm as ad man/mad man Don Draper on that other AMC show, took the prize instead.

Actress, drama: Glenn Close, "Damages" (FX). How come Meryl Streep always gets treated as the Greatest Actress of Her Generation? Did she ever try playing a cop for a season, like Close did on "The Shield"? Or have a daring series designed around a less-than-likable character, like Close did on "Damages"? This seems like a slam-dunk to me.

Actress, comedy: Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds" (Showtime). Though season three wasn't the strongest for this show, Parker is another one of those performers without whom it's impossible to even imagine the show on the air. She's in a tough category with Fey, 2007's winner America Ferrera for "Ugly Betty" (ABC) and 2006's winner, Julia-Louis Dreyfus for "Old Christine" (CBS).

Actor, comedy: I'm giving it to two-time loser Steve Carell ("The Office") over one-time loser Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock"). No reason.

Supporting actor, drama: William Shatner, "Boston Legal." He said with resignation. Shatner, a multiple winner here, should be upset by Zeljko Ivanek, who was terrific in "Damages" -- but don't hold your breath.

Supporting actress, drama: Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy." Look at this field: Wilson, "Grey"-mate Sandra Oh, Dianne Wiest ("In Treatment"), Rachel Griffiths ("Brothers and Sisters") and Candice Bergen ("Boston Legal")? Great actresses all, but their roles pale next to Bailey, who's won two SAG Awards and is overdue for an Emmy.

Supporting actor, comedy: Jeremy Piven ("Entourage," HBO), almost by default.

Supporting actress, comedy: Amy Poehler ("Saturday Night Live," NBC). This is a tricky call, because "SNL" almost never gets into the acting categories. She may win it, but if the voters are more tradition-minded, Kristin Chenoweth's performance on "Pushing Daisies" may prevail.

Reality host: Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol." A new category. I pick Seacrest because no one does more on camera -- emcee, interviewer, lion tamer -- and no one does it better.

Reality-competition: "The Amazing Race" (CBS). It's never lost in this category.

Variety/music/comedy series: "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central). Still Emmy's darling.

Made-for-TV movie: "Raisin in the Sun" (ABC). Not as electrifying, I'm told, as the Broadway revival with many of the same actors. HBO's "Bernard and Doris," with Susan Sarandon and Ralph Fiennes, is a dark horse.

Miniseries; actor in miniseries; actress in miniseries. "John Adams" times three. So that would make eleven Emmys.

Comments

[Nancy Bender]

"Actress, drama: Glenn Close, "Damages" (FX). How come Meryl Streep always gets treated as the Greatest Actress of Her Generation?"

Because she is. No, Streep hasn't played a cop, but Close hasn't played a Holocaust victim. So what's your point?

Personally, I much rather watch Kyra Sedgwick's more likable character. Thank you. Thank you very much.

[James]

Glenn Close may not have played a Holocaust victim...but she did play a prisoner of war in "Paradise Road" a brave, daring, heartbreaking performance. She is a much more rounded actress than Meryl Streep who tends to play the same role with a different accent (she's stellar at them -- don't get me wrong) but when she strays from her "norm" the results are often disastrous (i.e. Mamma Mia.)

I'm still pulling for Glenn as Norma Desmond on the big screen.

And please don't think this is a dig at Meryl Streep == she just is a tad overrated.

[Erik]

Good for you for picking "Lost." Most critics (in their Mad-Men-induced fever) forget the cardinal rule of Emmy's: best drama almost never goes to who THEY deem will win. So here's to Lost...and you for picking it! :)

[Sam]

If Hugh Laurie fails to win *again* I can only think "xenophobes."

[matt stechel]

well mad men did win after all

what made you think zeljko ivanek would upset william shatner as he actually did?

also hooray hooray hooray for Bryan Cranston---talk about someone whom no one actually pegged as actually going all the way and winning. this must be even sweeter then winning for malcom as supporting actor i'm sure. *which of course never happened even though it should have at least once!

also as great as 30 rock is is anyone else sick to death of tina fey, alec baldwin, and seein them everywhere??? Alec Baldwin over Steve Carrell? c'mon. baldwin's good yeah, but Carrell's been the show for 4 years now...pshhh ditto Laurie for House of course! freakin' ridiculous.

i hope another sitcom wins over 30 rock next year...i like it a lot but 2 wins in a row is more than enough. (poor 2.5 men, i know if it ever actually were to win, there'd be rioting in the blogs, but what's that show gotta do to get some love? ditto Jon Cryer or Rainn Wilson from The Office.)