Forget Tina Fey. Sarah Palin's worst nightmare may be Jay Leno

Considering that the largest audience in six years had tuned in to watch "Saturday Night Live," many of them curious to see what kind of treatment that Sarah Palin would get on the show, and considering that Tina Fey is not exactly known for her characters (unless you count Liz Lemon, her "30 Rock" character, who may just be Fey channeling her single-gal years), it's pretty impressive that Fey was able to meet or exceed expectations with her dead-on (if Upper Midwest-sounding) impression of Sarah Palin on "SNL" last weekend.

That said, you wonder if anyone, anyone changed their presidential preference after that performance. Wait, I'll answer that in a word: no. Not one person changed their mind based on Tina Fey. Anyone think she's voting Republican? Think she's voted Republican in her life? The whole sketch was designed as catharsis for Hillary-supporting Democrats ... like Tina Fey.

Jay Leno, on the other hand, is a classic equal-opportunity-offender late night comedian. He may not sway anyone's vote either. But he does stand up for 14 minutes five nights a week and deliver a monologue. And as someone regarded by his fans as a fair dealer -- as someone whose audience is as middle-America as it gets -- he has a power that Tina Fey, Jon Stewart, Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh, to name a few, cannot exert. It's the power to introduce a partisan idea into the mainstream without sounding (or being) partisan.

And that's why, if you're one of these Democrats who's been whining for two weeks that no one in the mainstream media will stand up to Sarah Palin and the people backing her, you may want to have a look at Jay Leno's monologue the past few nights.

"The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" is late night's No. 1-rated show by a country mile, averaging 4.7 million viewers a night to David Letterman's 3.5 million viewers. Here now, from the last three monologues for which I have the transcripts, are almost all of the political jokes told, all in just the past week, on Leno's show. See if you notice a trend. First we'll start with tonight's monologue:

Did you all see Sarah Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson? In fact, John McCain was watching it at home and at one point he turned to his wife and said, "She looks really familiar."

As you know, the Republicans are still keeping her away from the mainstream press. ... Actually, Sarah Palin is going from her interview with Gibson on ABC to one with Sean Hannity on Fox. That should be hard hitting! That's like going from hardball to tee ball, isn't it?

Sarah Palin said she is ready for Sean Hannity. In fact, she spent all day today writing out the questions he's going to ask her.

If you saw the big interview with Gibson, Sarah Palin quoted Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln said, "Let us not pray that God is on our side in a war or any other time, but let us pray that we are on God's side." Here's the amazing part. You know who Abraham Lincoln said that to? John McCain. [Ronald Reagan used to tell a version of this joke on himself.--AB]

In the Gibson interview, a lot of people thought Charlie Gibson was unfair to her. They thought he was talking down to her. That was one of the comments. Like when he asked her about the so-called Bush doctrine. Most people aren't familiar with the Bush doctrine. I mean, we are, but we know it by another name: "Murphy's Law."

Here's something I mentioned last week. For some reason the Secret Service revealed this. Sarah Palin's Secret Service code name is "danali." Turns out danali is an old Eskimo word that means Dan Quayle.

And here are all of Leno's political jokes on Friday:

If you watched TV last night, you know that Charlie Gibson did something John McCain has never done: interviewed Sarah Palin.

Last night Sarah Palin gave an interview with ABC's CHarlie Gibson. Earlier today her future son-in-law was on Maury Povich: "You are the father!"

At one point Charlie Gibson asked Palin about the Bush doctrine but she didn't know what it was. To be fair, even Bush doesn't know what the Bush doctrine is.

That was the big bone of contention on the cable talk shows. Supporters of Palin say that it's OK she doesn't know what the Bush doctrine is because the average American doesn't know what it is. Shouldn't the bar be a little higher for this job? Shouldn't it be a little above average? I'm mean, let's be honest we already had an average guy as president. It didn't work out that great.

The most important question that i would have asked her last night? "How were you treated at ABC? Are they nice people? Are they easy to work with?" That's what i would have asked.

Sarah Palin was also asked if we might have to go to war with Russia. She said, "perhaps so." Perhaps so? Isn't that like a magic 8-ball kind of answer? Will we have to go to war? "Reply hazy. Try again later. It is decidedly so."

Today the Secret Service revealed that Sarah Palin's Secret Service code name is "denali." Here's my question, what's the secret part? I mean if the Secret Service is going to give you a Secret Service code name, shouldn't they keep it a secret? Why not just call her Sarah?

They also revealed that Sarah's husband Todd, who works in the oil field...His Secret Service code name is "driller." I guess they figured Bill Clinton wasn't using it anymore.

And as you know they've already come out with a Sarah Palin action figure. Today the Democrats released a Joe Biden action figure, and it talks...and talks...and talks... You can't get the thing to shut up.

And the other day while talking to a group of supporters, Joe Biden said that Hillary Clinton might have been a better pick for vice president than him. Yeah, that's one way to get the base fired up, huh? Tell them they picked the wrong person.

And according to an AP article in the paper today, Sarah Palin's church in Alaska is promoting a conference that promises to convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer. They call it "pray away the gay." It's a lot better than the original title: "Think outside the bun."

And Charles Rangel, Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, the guy who writes the tax codes. He has been found to be in default on taxes on income of a beach villa that he owns in the caribbean. Rangel blamed it on his accountant and then said he didn't understand the law. Didn't understand it? He wrote it! If he don't understand it how screwed are we?

Last Tuesday:

Some good news for John McCain -his poll numbers are up 4% and liver spots are down 3%.

Dick Cheney told reporters this week that "there is no reason why Sarah Palin cannot be a successful vice president in a McCain administration." In fact, not only can she shoot a lawyer in the face, she can field dress him as well.

Many people are saying that Gov. Palin has really put Alaska on the map. To which President Bush said, "really? Then how come i still can't find it?"

The glasses that Sarah Palin wears are a hot item. They're selling much better than Joe Biden hair plugs. Those aren't moving at all.

As you all know, President Bush was not at the Republican Convention due to a disaster. His presidency.

Out on the campaign trail this week, McCain, once again, McCain talked about the nightmare of being stuck in a little 8 x 10 foot room thinking that he would go crazy. Not in vietnam - the time he got stuck in the capitol hill elevator with joe biden and the guy wouldn't shut up.

I guess they are getting a little worried at the Barack Obama campaign...It's so close now. I guess Barack plans to have lunch with Bill Clinton this week. That's gotta be a little uncomfortable, huh? You'll have someone who has a strained relation with Hillary, having lunch with the democratic presidential nominee.

Boy George has released a new song that is inspired by Barack Obama. It's called "Yes We Can." Well, if that doesn't put Obama over the top with the Joe Sixpack crowd, nothing will. You want to reach Ohio...that's the way to do it, with Boy George.

What do you think of McCain's slogan: "Country First." Isn't that one of those mortgage companies that folded a couple of months ago? Oh, that was Countrywide...

As you know, this past weekend the government announced a massive bailout of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Just to give you an idea how big the bailout is - they actually had to tell President Bush about it.

You get the point. As of right now, the juiciest target for his humor are the people who are spinning Sarah Palin's vice presidential ambitions. Notice how he returns to the same topics night after night: Bush's incompetence. McCain's irrelevance. Palin's handlers' spin.

I find it interesting that Leno can get away with doing what Brian Williams can't do: openly mocking Republican talking points in a nonpartisan setting. You don't see any rumors about Republican women boycotting Leno, do you? McCain lackeys aren't wasting their breath going after NBC's entertainment division with the lustiness of their attacks on NBC's news division. (Because they want John and Cindy to make return visits to Jay's couch.)

Yet, right now, the entertainment side may be doing more damage to the Palin-McCain ticket.

Johnny Carson, toward the end of his career, called Dan Quayle "the gift that keeps on giving." But that was a role that many a politician played in the "Tonight Show" monologue under Carson, a rogue's gallery of Democrats as well as Republicans, from Earl Butz to Bert Lance to Billy Carter to Ronald Reagan to James Watt to Bush 41. (Those are the ones I recall from memory.)

The crucial difference this time is the candidate is not the butt of Leno's Palin jokes. Her supporters are. While Tina Fey attacks Palin directly, questioning her credentials and mocking her beauty-queen poses, Leno pokes gentle (sometimes not gentle) fun at the McCain campaign for keeping Palin on a short leash.

You may know that Mavis Leno is a longtime supporter of the Feminist Majority, which sounds very much like a Democrat cause. On the other hand, her big feminist cause is educating Afghan women and protecting them from the Taliban. Well heck, even Laura Bush has spoken out in favor of that. I used to refer to the Lenos as "Mavis and Avis," back when Jay was trying harder because he was in second place. The idea still holds, though, that they are a pair, a good pair, and you can see the influence of Mavis, I would argue, in Leno's refusal to attack Palin as many Democrats are doing. The Palin presented here is more in line with her self-image: smart, competent, clever. Maybe too clever.

Do I think everybody reading this believes Jay Leno is neutral in the 2008 election? No. I think the Republicans probably think he is biased against their candidate and the Democrats think he is secretly an Obama man.

But their opinions really don't matter here. It's the swayable middle that matters. And Leno, in the service of a good laugh, is planting ideas in the minds of the uncommitted. He's doing what the spin machine is trying to keep the mainstream news media from doing: namely, express doubts that are on people's minds about the newest star on the national political scene. Comedy is a lot of things, but some of the most effective comedy today boils down to saying what's on people's minds. Cedric does it. Engvall does it. Howard Stern does nothing but. And Leno does it.

By the way: How many people will remember the Biden hair plug joke, do you think?

Final thought: Conan O'Brien doesn't do this kind of monologue. We may be approaching the end of an era going back to Jack Paar over 50 years ago.

Comments

[Shaye]

I think the first fallacy with this article is suggesting that Tina Fey or any other satirist is responsible for changing the hearts and minds of voters - or, even, that they wish to do so.

The entire purpose of satire is to make fun of a candidate, while using the hilariously ignorant and/or downright dumb things a politician has said. It happened with Gore in 2000, with Bush, Clinton, Carter, Bush Jr., and a handful of other politicians. It's nothing new. So pretending like SNL's digs at Palin last Saturday were some sort of political anomaly is reaching.

It should also be noted (along with many other news sources who've agreed) that SNL has been a huge part of the presidential race for at least eight years. People care about what SNL does. There's a reason why more viewers tuned in last weekend than did during the premiere that followed 9/11. According to the figures listed, this season's premiere almost garnered more viewers than Letterman and Leno combined. The original video on NBC.com has been viewed 2.5 million times world wide, and countless times on cable and broadcast news. This means that Fey's portrayal of Palin reached many more viewers (and voters) than Leno. And, undoubtedly, any future portrayals will be watched just as fervently.

In conclusion, to put it in two words or less: I disagree.

[matt stechel]

wooow...good article aaron...i mean despite the fact that a large chunk of it was devoted to jay leno punchlines, it does make you think...conan does political humor on rare occasions...well ok, "Conan" doesn't do political humor, but that's what he has the lips for. (aka Robert Smigel's voice--remember all the times he did Bob Dole well over a decade ago now. yeah that makes me feel old, but i;m only 26!!!) anyways I like your point of comedy being the best way to sway peoples' hearts and minds. True too.

[John]

The SNL Palin sketch was "designed as catharsis for Hillary-supporting Democrats?" Really? Golly, I thought SNL tried to design sketches to make people laugh. Tell me, what was "unfrozen caveman lawyer" designed as? Were Belushi's killer bees sketches designed as catharsis for Nixon supporters? Party on, Wayne.

[Sherri]

Tina Fey is a registered Independent and was raised as a Republican (Mom always said to pull the lever for them) and first registered as a Republican. She said it herself in that interview for Life magazine where she posed with John McCain a few years back.

She is just intelligent enough to recognise that America needs someone competent, pragmatic and firm to dig America out of the ginormous deep hole she has sunk herself in.

[Stooge]

The ABC joke from Friday doesn't interest you, AB? And the fact that he kept plugging Charlie Gibson by name?

[Sure it interested me -- it just didn't "embolden" me. Dunno where you're going with the Gibson reference -- he's not Al Gore, he doesn't have to say "my rival on a different network."--AB]

[Kevin]

Jay Leno is no Jack Paar, and I personally believe that Conan O'Brien will bring something to The Tonight Show that hasn't ever been there, which is all right. Other than that, well put-together article. I really enjoyed it.

[American Pundit Fighting]

I'm not entirely sold that Leno has the ability to plant timebombs that would sway independents. Hannity and Limbaugh and there strident liberal counterparts would also have little hope.

I still think The Daily Show and Colbert have the best shot. Their critiques are clearly telegraphed but they're also more substantive. They also have the ability to introduce new information with their video pieces.

I've always been curios to know how swayable the middle really is and the effect timebombs really have.

[Lola]

Well, Sarah Palin's candidacy IS A JOKE, so it's not so hard to see why she's the target of Leno dialogue. She makes it so easy to get laughs. She's a white-trash governor with 5 kids and no idea about governance or foreign relations. She'll probably want to put a trailer on the Rose Garden lawn and take an Army helicopter out hunting.

[Robert]

There is a little bit of truth in every joke.

[Svarten (Sweden)]

Listen to more than 170 of the BEST SONGS in support of Barack Obama: http://tinyurl.com/2t4mjf

[Allyson]

Thank you for this. I feel better now!

[When Elephants Fly]

Comments welcome: http://whenelephantsfly.blogspot.com
Leno is absolutely hilarious. It's funny that while the mainstream media has turned the election into a comedy, it takes a comedian to actually tell it like it is. What is scary to me is that as funny as Leno's monologue is, there is far too much truth behind it. Ultimately, I pray that the American people will look past the smoke and mirrors and focus again on core issues like the disastrous state of our economy and John McCain's plan to increase the tax burden of the middle class. People are already struggling to make ends meet, we don't need another Republican president to make the rich richer and poor poorer. While Republicans claim to represent the conservative side of social issues like being anti-abortion and anti-gay-marriage, they haven't done anything in these areas. Instead, they have used greed to destroy the economy, allowing the wealthy to become even wealthier while the middle class is forced into poverty.

If you think McCain has honor and integrity, check him out in action here: http://hk.youtube.com/watch?v=2arf1Fvuu5Y

Comments welcome: http://whenelephantsfly.blogspot.com

[Tim Kelley, St. Paul, MN]

I have always found Leno very funny but at best he is just the least perverted of the group...the stuff we laugh is an indicator of the type of people we have become..."deference" or "respect" is not EVER to be expected in the culture of the 21st century. The days when the media would not photograph President Roosevelt below the waist to protect his manhood are LONG GONE. This is the age of cynicism...FDR could play Happy days are here again after being elected in the midst of the worst economic depression in our history...If John McCain were to do that upon being elected he would be recieved with total cynicism. This is who we are and where we are at.

[Franglais]

I'm surprised that some people here would bother commenting without reading the article in it's entirety. Or in the case of the first comment, through the second paragraph.
That said, I enjoyed the analysis and do hope you're right.
I too am a bigger fan of Stewart and Colbert than of Leno, but unlike "american pundit fighting," feel that they are even more for the enjoyment of the Left than say, Tina Fey.

[Marvin Music]

I'm not a big fan of Leno but a few of those jokes had some merit to them that could, I think, make independents think twice about Palin.

I think a lot of people are re-thinking Palin right now - her favorables are dropping as fast as her unfavorables are rising. Soon she will be a net negative for McCain.

[Stooge]

I just meant that it seems as if ABC is no longer a rival network for Leno...

[victor the crab]

Ugh! Are you kidding me? Jay Leno hasn't been funny in years, if ever. That people still tune in to hear what he has to say says a lot about the intelligence of the American people. Stick with Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert for some really funny and devestating attacks on the shortcomings of politicians and their weasel words.

[John Carpenter]

Jay Leno, "Kingmaker".

Remember this zinger before the election in 2004:

"Political experts say President Bush was off his game. He looked distracted, confused, a little at a loss for words. Off his game? That is Bush's game."

Yep. That helped Kerry a bunch.

"Of course you know, President Bush has been taking a couple days off this week to prepare for the debates. In fact, he's having a microchip implanted in his ear. This will allow Dick Cheney to speak to him directly. 'It's pronounced 'Fallujah' 'Abu Ghraib.'"

That must have been worth a few electoral votes.

Memo to Jay, dave, and Bill Mauer: Your guy Barry has been told by "Don" Clinton to stay away from the subject of "Palin" because you
just keep her name out there.

[Roni , Miami, FL]

Any chance we can ditch Palin and have Tina Fey stand in in her place? Then I MIGHT consider voting republican.... no... not really. Not ever. Not now. No how! No way!

I thought Tina Fey was more like Palin than Sarah Palin herself!

[eb1]

One difference between Leno and Stewart/Colbert is that the latter primarily attracts a younger and more Democrat-leaning crowd, along with a few David Gergen/Chuck Hagel type of Republicans, while Leno cuts across a wide swath of more undecided Mabels from Zanesville types.

Stewart/Colbert can only serve to energize their fellow travelers, who are already going to vote for Obama, while Mabel, who probably doesn't watch Stewart, can be swayed a bit more that the True Believers.

[obi-wan]

i think Leno just jokes about what is funny and relevant to current events. He also writes according to his audience. Palin is new on the block thats why the focus is on her. check back to when Obama entered the scene. He was often the target of many jokes.

Comedians dont check the political message of their jokes, they just want to be funny as long as its not offensive.

[Carolyn]

Anyone who is naive enough to think that comedians on TV are politically neutral, was born yesterday.

[Dennis]

Given the fact that Leno practically endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger for Governor of California, his assessment of Sarah Palin says something.

[Nancy]

I think someone would have to be pretty simple-minded to have their votes swayed on the strength of one or two clever political sketches. Most shows tend to reflect, rather than, influence public/media opinion perspectives on the political issues and personalities of the day.

I find Leno's humour, especially the political stuff, very predictable and tame, if not downright repetitive. His point-of-view is rarely fresh but just a rehash of what the media is already saying about a particular issue or person. And then he repeats that theme again and again. Let's see...Bill Clinton is randy, Hillary is cold, McCain is old, Palin is inexperienced, Bush is dumb, Cheney is hostile, politicians have been known to lie, blah, blah, blah... I believe he was the very last comedian to give up the ghost on Monica Lewinsky jokes. How clever and fresh is that??

[Janet Moeller]

I think who ever the messenger is the message needs to get out to the public-- Leno, Stewart, Colbert, and Maher, etc. After the Gibson interview it was very clear to me that Palin is NOT part of reform or the answer to our failing economy, health care issues, environment, education, Women's rights, the list goes on and on.

After the Gibson interview I started looking into Palin's politics and I was horrified to read that as Mayor of Wasilla she made rape victims pay for their own $1200.00 rape kits. Now whether that was her doing or not she didn't change that policy. It was then Govenor Knowles who changed that policy. Palin bullied a librarian for not removing certain books from the library. Well actually, she fired her, but the town was in an uproar and the librarian was reinstated. When asked for comment on the situation; the librarian responded something to the affect; that it was such a horrible time in her life that she didn't want to comment. Palin is just the pretty face placed on the ticket of the GOP's platform of lies, fear and greed. She is being used like Susan Harris (of Florida) was used for the 2000 election-the parties moll.

Around the first of September I read a brief article about the Bush Administration wanting to restrict access to birth control. "The Health and Human Services Department wants to redefine many forms of contrapception--including IUDs and most birth control pills--as abortion. The rule change, which would bypass Congress, has vast implications. Pharmacists and health care workers who object to abortion could refuse to supply women with contraceptives. Insurance companies could withhold coverage for birth control. Rape victims could be denied emergency contraceptives." Palin's belief that abstinence is the only acceptable alternative of birth control would lock this in. My question is, how would men who have had/or want to have a vasectomy be treated in the policy change? Isn't sterilization the ultimate form of birth control under this policy definition of abortion? Once again the Social Conservatives are trying to solve their problems by limiting and/or taking away the rights of women.

No matter who the messenger is... all of the information needs to be accessible to the public and people will hear what they want to hear and form their own opinions.