Three myths about those town-hall meetings Obama refused to do

So there's going to be a debate tonight. But in announcing that he was going to attend his first showdown with Barack Obama tonight, Sen. John McCain took yet another opportunity to note that he had challenged his opponent to 10 town-hall debate meetings way back on June 4, the day after Obama clinched the Democrat nomination ... and had been turned down cold.

"I also wish Senator Obama had agreed to 10 or more town hall meetings that I had asked him to attend with me," he told Charles Gibson last night. "Wouldn't be quite that much urgency if he agreed to do that, instead he refused to do it."

Yes, it is getting annoying -- TNR took the occasion to update the Rudy Giuliani formulation to suit McCain: a noun, and those 10 town-hall meetings.

Here's the problem: McCain was right. Righter than he will ever know.

No doubt Democrats swear at their TV sets every time McCain brings up those infernal town halls, like at the supposedly nonpartisan 9/11 service forum. And they think to themselves:What exactly do sleazy attacks on your opponent have to do with his decision not to debate you?

As Friday's first presidential debate looms, it's worth looking back and asking if Obama will see his failure to spend the summer traveling the country debating the issues with John McCain as an opportunity -- and an election -- lost.

All summer long, Obama played the Lincoln-Douglas card. He said he would prefer a more formal two-man debate approach than a town hall. In reality, he was running away from any kind of direct encounter with his opponent, over whom he had a slim lead in the polls in early June.

The Obama campaign based this ill-advised decision on three easily refuted myths.

Myth #1. John McCain likes the town-hall format, so this will only help him. OK, first thing? John McCain likes Republican town halls. When his candidacy was in the doldrums, he went and held informal meet-and-greets where Republicans (and independents) could go who were wondering which GOP candidate to support. And they could ask him the "tough" questions, like why he isn't perceived as the "pro-life" candidate even though he's voted against abortion rights his entire political career. You know, hard hitting stuff like that.

Anyway, the town halls were a great fit for him, and thousands got to know the John McCain that many of us have admired over the years, the celebrity (who now denies he ever was one) who called in to "Imus in the Morning" and graced every late-night couch he could find.

Problem for McCain is that, in a town-hall meeting with Obama, the crowd composition would be entirely different than anything McCain came across when he was doing rallies in New Hampshire and Michigan and Ohio. Whatever questions he gets from the audience would be puffballs compared to what he might expect if placed in a far less partisan room.

Myth #2. Obama is more comfortable with formal debates and McCain is more comfortable with town halls. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but in a town-hall meeting with Obama, McCain won't be the only candidate on stage. That's a huge difference between then and now. With Obama on stage, McCain would have been forced to account for his ridiculous, over-the-top TV ads -- of course, this is assuming he would run any negative attack ads during the summer had Obama agreed to do those 10 town halls.

Of course, McCain would have been free to question truthiness claims in Obama's TV ads as well, but I believe, quoting the candidate, that is a debate Obama would like to have.

Therefore, who's to say that McCain will be more comfortable with this format than Obama? No one will know until they have their own town hall debate in October. But Obama is the more gifted public speaker, so I think it's possible he will do better.

Myth #3. Barack Obama was leading John McCain in the polls. There was no reason to engage him directly.

That, as we all now know, was the most insignificant of leads, and it didn't take into account the loss of momentum that would follow from letting McCain hammer away at Obama all summer long.

The economic "plan for change," articulated on the Obama website, stayed on the Obama website because the press had no interest in covering it until the market cratered. And yet, it was a bad idea to debate the economy in town halls with John McCain. (Can you imagine how the Obama camp would be using sound bites out of those town halls right now?)

For three months after the primary season ended, Democrats nervously waited in vain for Obama's poll advantage to climb higher than seven points. They clucked nervously as their man was shown to be trailing in battleground states like Wisconsin and Colorado. But they didn't want to risk that in a series of town halls with McCain!

When McCain whipped out his secret weapon the day after Obama's Rocky Mountain High, and the polls flipped, and the Democrats were in a panic, who in that party could honestly say they were glad Obama didn't expose himself to the public this summer with hours of free television time?

Perhaps most troubling, this fact: The percentage of people who believe Barack Obama is a Muslim has steadily risen over the summer. Quoting Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times:

A Pew Research Center survey released a few days ago found that only half of Americans correctly know that Mr. Obama is a Christian. Meanwhile, 13 percent of registered voters say that he is a Muslim, compared with 12 percent in June and 10 percent in March. More ominously, a rising share — now 16 percent — say they aren’t sure about his religion because they’ve heard “different things” about it.

And yet, it was a bad idea to appear in town halls with John McCain and expose yourself to millions of Americans.

Of course John McCain thought it was to his advantage to demand town halls. McCain has been known to passionately advocate something ... only to change his mind later. This might have been one of those things. We'll never know now.

If Obama loses, his staff will look back at the town halls as an opportunity lost. Plain and simple.

Comments

[Chris]

Well yes to any and all of that. . .but it only counts if the three debates scheduled don't fall Obama's way.

[Montanan4Obama]

The townhall meetings and the presidential debates are apples and oranges. Just because John McCain wants to set an agenda does not mean Barack Obama is required to comply. In fact, I think there are number of valid reasons for Obama not to take the bait. First, many of the townhall meetings are delivered to McCain faithful, like any event for a particular candidate. Many people with opposing views are discouraged from attending. So who gets to choose the forum and the sites? Will the discussions digress into shouting matches? Will they be in pro-Republican or pro-Democrat regions of the country. Too many questions. The presidential debates are another story. They are part of the traditional history of the presidential campaign. The debates give the American public a chance to make up their minds at election time. Also, a great amount of money, time and energy is expended to put the debates together. In fact, Haley Barber (R) the governor of Mississippi is not happy about a potential cancellation. Nearly 5 million dollars has been spent to stage the debates and they an important infusion into the economy for the good people of Mississippi. The debates should go on!

[Julia]

Interesting take on the history. Will you share the fuller picture? The idea to have the 10 town halls - which sounds like a fine, bipartisan plan, was presented just as Obama had clinched the nomination at the end of tough primary season. Leaving aside the fact that McCain had already set a day and a place for the first town hall, assuming that Obama would be free, and also leaving aside the fact that if he really wanted to make a bipartisan effort he would have reached out privately for the negotiations (is this starting to sound like the recent economic maneuverings?)- anyway, leaving all that aside, as I say, the fact is that the Obama camp did not "turn them down cold," as you say. In place of 10 town hall meetings, which IMHO do favor McCain, who has a snappier, less wordy response pattern than Obama, they offered 1 town hall meeting on July 4th, the three Presidential debates, and 1 special foreign policy forum. McCain turned this down, saying - "we all know what American families want to do on July 4th." Agree with one or the other - but there was a negotiation, and a disagreement. Funny how we only hear about the 10, not about the counter-offer. maybe because Obama has moved on.

[dragonfly777]

Perhaps Obama will talk about his own words?? I would like to see him answer these in the debates.

From Dreams of My Father: 'I ceased to advertise my mother's race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites.'

From Dreams of My Father : 'I found a solace in
nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother's race.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'There was something
about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'It remained necessary
to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names.'

From Dreams of My Father: 'I never emulate white
men and brown men whose fates didn't speak to my own. It was into my father's image, the black man, son of Africa ,( he lies here he has no African root he is Arab! ) that I'd packed all the attributes I sought in myself , the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, Du Bois and Mandela.'

This is the change Obama plans!

[Cindie]

lmao here....MCCAIN will eat him alive tonight.

[AHJ]

And when Obama wins the election, his campaign staff will look back on the town hall meetings as an error wisely avoided.

The real issues and positions of these two men are readily knowable to anyone with the slightest ability to pay attention.

[Corey]

If Obama loses, his staff and his admirers won't be looking back at the number and format of the debates for blame. I have to disagree with you. There are so many other factors in this race that will contribute to either Obama's loss, or marginal win. Things like race, supposed inexperience, blind party loyalty, having a weird name that sounds suspicious to those prone to label books by their covers, and many other subconscious Obama "cons" in the minds of the electorate. The idea that something as noble as a town hall could counter the effects of a 30 second attack ad is overestimating our dear electorate, I fear. The fact is, many of those who(like me) would have watched a fall chock full of bipartisan town halls are exactly the sort of voters who will go out of their way to find out what they need to know to vote anyway (Factcheck.org). And those who won't wouldn't be caught dead watching a town hall over a football game. Which means they're right where they are now: relying on second-hand media commentary, campaign ads, their own gut and their built-in prejudices.

[Lawrence]

Yes, McCain would have bailed on the town meetings. Perhaps he would have gone to the first, but if Obama did well, he would have bailed. And Obama would have been dubbed an "elitist" because he only wanted to do these because he knew he'd do well.

Let's face it: Obama can't please McCain/Palin supporters. He went on O'Reilly, it did nothing to stop them from going on and on now about "why ain't he on Couric? Why is only Palin getting grilled by Couric?" Obama went on O'REILLY.

The only ones who can make McCain and Palin's own supporters listen to Obama, or see him as anything but a (fill in the blank with negative nouns/adjectives), is McCain and Palin. So nothing Obama can do will affect that regardless. Sadly.

[Republican Christians for Obama!]

Disagree 100%. The townhall meetings McCain wanted would have been stacked with republican operatives softballing questions to McCain while Obama got hammered. McCain proved himself to be a coward with his stunt to try to delay the debate. McCain tries to delay a real debate, and Obama is faulted for not signing up to be dragged through the mud republican style? Get real. The coward is McCain. The winner will be Obama.

[SeattleGuy]

Yawn, McCain, Obama...Town Hall - Debate. Yawn..Yaaaaawwwwnnnnnnnn.

I want Palin - Biden. Gimme some of that gnaw on.

[thisniss]

The "Town Hall Debate Debate" was never about the debates themselves, any more than it is now. The reasons McCain wanted Obama to "engage" him in this way, at that time, had to do with

1. crowd draw: Obama had them, McCain didn't

2. money: debates = free advertising

3. dictating Obama's (travel) schedule: Obama was already stating that he was committed to campaigning on a broader electoral ground than the current 50% +1 strategizing encourages. That means McCain would have to get a different game, and it would demand both more money and more time from him. If he could slow Obama to his pace with "a Town Hall a week," it would keep Obama from making uneven gains in new battleground areas.

I live in North Carolina, and I can clearly see the effects of the Obama campaign strategy here. The "10 Town Hall" gambit would have KILLED Obama's campaign in NC, and McCain knew that. At most, 1 of those town halls would have taken place here. You have to spread the love around in a "debate" allotment. On the other hand, campaign stops happen where each individual campaign feels they should. So in NC, within 2 weeks we will have seen Obama twice, Biden twice, and Michelle once (plus Gov Sebelius and others on Obama's behalf). We've seen McCain exactly 0 times. NC voters get a sense of who is really looking for their votes. If we got ONE town hall to meet the candidates, it would be a wash - in other words, advantage McCain, since this is a traditionally Republican voting state in Presidential elections.

It was never about "debating," and the McCain camp knows it. The "Town Hall" gambit was ALWAYS, always, always an attempt to control Obama's campaign schedule and to cash in on his much better turnout at campaign events. To believe anything else is to be spun by yet another McCain McTruth.

[Sam Griffin]

Actually I think there was another reason they decided to not do the townhall meetings. It is the huge contrast between the candidates. I think they wanted the age, appearance and other factors that come to light in seeing these two side by side to have a big impact on the election. If they had been doing it all summer the contrast would have worn off by election day and McCain would have learned how to respond to Obama and his techniques of debate. The debates would have been boring and predictable with little influence on the election. With just over one month until the elections there won't be time for McCain to right the ship and for the public to grow accustom to their stark differences. Also it gave Obama more time to educate himself on McCain's supposed strength, foreign policy. If McCain makes a Sunni/Shia mistake, or talk about a country that hasn't existed in 18 years Obama will try to jump on it. That will have a great deal more impact in a national debate in front of 100 million viewers then it would have in a townhall forum.

Don't forget people from around the world will be watching, Americans are tired of being embarrassed of their President.

[MichaelZ]

Alllll speculation. We'll see how things unfold tonight. I have this funny feeling that McCain will seem slightly desperate since his theatrics with wanting to go to Washington until the problem was solved and I won't debate till it is, really blew up in his face.
Obama can speak well, McCain isn't too bad, but he's not a great public speaker "my friends".

[JimBo]

Still, in politics perception is reality. Seattleguy's probably got it more close to correct than anyone else. But still, not doing at least a few of these town hall meetings (each campaign would have negotiated the locations and crowd make-up, so those are moot) lets McCain keep harping on Obama's alleged fear of meeting him in this format. Personally, I think Obama probably would've wiped the floor with McCain, who would've come up with some reason to blow off his own idea (which we've seen him do time after time). That said, it would've maybe also helped Obama figure out how to best deal with McCain before the official "debates," and he would've done better last night. (I strongly disagree with Barnhart about Obama winning, unfortunately -- even though I don't think I fit into any of those categories he gave for people who thought McCain won.) I'll be voting for Obama, because McCain's policies and decision making (see his vp pick) are just too damn scary. Otoh, it strikes me that both of these guys are pretty likable, in their own ways, and I'd like to have a beer with either one.

[Karl]

No candidate would ever agree to let the other candidate set the debate format. That is why they have an independent commission do it.

Besides, Sen. Obama draws tens of thousands of people to his rally's. Why should he let Sen McCain share the stage with him?

Both candidates will play to their strengths and reach out to the undecided folks.

Of course, the democrats are idiots. Not in the election, as Sen Obama will win that, but in the bail out BS going through congress.

Wall Street is not a democrat constituancy, it is Republican. If the democrats had any political skills at all, they would have responded to Paulson with ...

"You want $700 Billion for Wall Street? That's fine, we want $700 Billion for Health Care."

And they could have forced it through. But they rushed in to accommodate, and the Republicans raised the stakes. The democrats are easily stampeded if you tell them the sky is falling. They believed it when Bush said their were WMD's in Iraq, and they rushed to bail out the biggest Republican constituency of all, because someone made them panic.

It all boils down to this.The Republicans know they are going to loose the White House and they are rushing to cash in with the bail out. It serves a secondary function of bankrupting the Govt, which means the democrats cant do anything about health care, the environment, or tax cuts. The Democrats will have to raise taxes, and then they will lose the 2012 election. Putting Wall Street right back in the white house.

[PJ Rodriguez]

While I tend to agree that not doing the town halls seems like a missed opportunity, I think some commenters make good points. McCain clearly made the suggestion out of weakness. There's no way he'd make the suggestion now and it's highly likely he would have wiggled out of them.