Tina Fey scarcely affects voters' perception of Palin .... but that Keating video ... !!
So a few weeks back, after "Saturday Night Live" unveiled its latest 3-D cardboard cutout, I wrote, "Not one person changed their mind based on Tina Fey. Anyone think she's voting Republican? Think she's voted Republican in her life? The whole sketch was designed as catharsis for Hillary-supporting Democrats ... like Tina Fey."
Now comes polling data that suggests, well, maybe that "Fargo"-inspired take on the folksy governor was having some effect. Take a look below and decide for yourself.
The report from HCD Research and Muhlenberg College admits that the favorability rating for Palin only decreases "slightly" after a person watches Fey impersonating Palin on "SNL." In fact, the decrease all but evaporates once Democrat voters are taken out of the equation. Among the all-important independents, the Sarah shift is barely more than the margin of error: four percentage points.
As so often happens, HCD/Muhlenberg's P.R. department buried the lede. The real story is that the 13-minute Charles Keating-John McCain video -- a mediocre 13-minute documentary that needed an editor -- took down McCain's favorables noticeably. It even seems to hurt McCain among Republicans who watch the video, as this report page shows.
Here's the problem with both studies: They only prove that people exposed to the sketch/documentary will react to it, to some degree. They don't assert that the sketch/documentary actually had that kind of impact, because we don't really know how many people have watched it. (Actually, YouTube says that the Keating 5 video has been viewed nearly 1.4 million times.)
Nor do we know how many people watched it all the way through -- not really an issue regarding "SNL," but c'mon, a 13-minute web video? Who sits through those? Especially one that moves as glacially as "Keating 5," with its one-and-only talking head and a few video clips from when McCain had hair.
So yeah, it could have had an impact. But I think a better measure is how the Gallup poll moved after the debates, which were watched by far more Americans than "SNL" and the Keating video combined.
Sarah Palin's Favorability Ratings Decrease Slightly Among All Parties After Viewing Tina Fey Impersonation
Flemington, NJ, October 9, 2008 - A new national study among 314 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and Independents revealed that after viewing a Tina Fey impersonation of Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live, Palin'sfavorability ratings dropped slightly among all parties.
The study was conducted by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) on October 8, to obtain Americans' perceptions of Governor Sarah Palin after viewing a skit on Saturday Night Live, in which Tina Fey does an impersonation of Palin.
The ad earned John McCain a Political Communications Impact Score (PCIS) of 9.6 while Barack Obama received a score of 5.8, resulting in a net score of 3.7 for John McCain. The scores can be compared to a mean score of 8.5 for previously tested Obama ads and 7.2 for previously tested McCain ads. To date, the total mean score for all previously tested ads is 7.9.
Among the Findings:
Favorability ratings for Sarah Palin pre/post viewing of video:
All Responders - 47%/43% (pre/post)
Democrats - 24%/17%
Republicans - 80%/79%
Independents - 37%/33%
The PCIS is a metric scoring system designed to gauge the effectiveness of political communications by generating a score for each candidate to monitor changes in voter perceptions. The PCIS score is derived from the change in voters' support and the extent that the support shifts. To view scores and results of recent studies go to: http://www.mediacurves.com/PCIS/
While viewing the video, participants indicated their levels of believability by moving their mouse from left to right on a continuum. The responses were recorded in quarter-second intervals and reported in the form of curves. The participants' emotions were measured using the Ayer Emotion Battery. Participants were also asked pre- and post-viewing questions. To view believability curves and detailed results go to: www.mediacurves.com.
The Media Curves web site provides the media and general public with a venue to view Americans' perceptions of popular and controversial media events and advertisements.
