Toldja! Obama wins the town-hall debate; CNN ought to patent that polygraph

ESPN likes to ask its talking-heads panels a question just about every day, it goes something like this: Did Dallas win the game or did Philly lose it? Endlessly entertaining because it's practically unproveable. Now, I can't prove that Barack Obama waltzed to victory in his second head-to-head with John McCain. The polls will come in soon enough and I'm pretty certain they will show a resounding win for Obama. (UPDATE: CNN's flash poll gives it to Obama 54-30.) So, people will spend all day Wednesday debating this imponderable: Did Obama win it? Or did McCain lose it?

I had a cheat sheet. As I mentioned last time, CNN had this sort of polygraph thing going at the bottom of the screen. They handed a roomful of uncommitted Ohio voters (selected by Opinion Research pollsters) these dials that they use in Hollywood to rate TV shows -- not the most scientific instruments, since they nearly kept NBC from putting "Seinfeld" on the air back in the day -- and had them turn the dials up or down based on whether they liked/hated what they were hearing at that moment.

The dials gave a definite edge to Obama in Debate No. 1, and that was reflected in later polling. He won. If anything, the advantage was even more decisive in Debate No. 2. When McCain attacks, viewers dialed him down into negative territory. When Obama attacked, viewers typically responded with mild approval. You might say it was the difference between using a hatchet and using a scalpel. (By the way, when Obama used that line again, his approval line spiked ... again.)

McCain had some spikes: When he talked about Russia. When he talked about hybrid cars. When he closed. But Obama spiked consistently and with greater strength with these uncommitted Ohio voters from the beginning to the end. There are many examples to give, but this one was stunning: a nearly two-minute flatline at the top of the approval scale when Obama talked about Iraq. This, even as Obama slipped from talking about his mother to talking about his policy to criticizing McCain. He could do no wrong.

I predicted he would do better in the town-hall debate format than many thought he would. I was surprised, however, how emphatic this win was, not only in my opinion but in the eyes of uncommitted voters.

I'll leave it to other people to talk about McCain's stage wandering, his odd tics, his interrogating of Brokaw. But I will point out that every time McCain jabbed at or outright attacked Obama, the line took a nosedive into negative territory. When Obama responded to McCain attacks, the line went back into positive territory.

The fact that Pat Buchanan is on MSNBC arguing with everything I have said here gives me greater confidence that Obama won. The fact that CNN's focus group -- the very people twiddling those dials -- were evenly divided over who won the debate gives me pause.

But what a genius idea that polygraph was. CNN gets credit for putting it on screen and extra credit for removing the Democrat and Republican voters from the chart after the first debate.

Finally, what was the deal with Tom Brokaw? "What don't you know?" "What is the McCain Doctrine?" All that was missing was the "If you were a tree" question. Tom, your time is up.

Comments

[Kane]

One of the worst debates ever, happy that Obama didn't take the bait on the summer-ful of townhalls favored by media elites.

Yeah, he won, strictly on the strength of who looks most presidential.

[VeRonda]

Wow! The title is hilarious... I'm watching the analysts now. Too funny!

[nancy]

Obama won (with his jacket on!) He did not have to show off his ability to be casual and down-to-earth or his young, lean, athletic build. OF COURSE he could win on the power of his intellect and his ability to genuinely relate to middle class voters. As usual, his body language was a beautiful thing to watch: Here is a man totally outside of himself, comfortable in his own skin. It is palpable.

[honor]

Both candidates are great Americans. McCain lost tonight, as it was very obvious that he represents old school..We need new ideas and new a new order to take the leadership role to make "A new Deal with Americans" to get out of this mess without special interests.

Obama respresents real change and actions that will change history..Obama has the energy, honor and leadership to represent all of us.. What courage and determination to be the 1st man of color to be president., I am glad to support him as we move towards the election..

TP
Former Republican

[jc]

i think it was a pretty even debate, except McCain kind of came off as a jerk.

I think Obama was a little bit more clear and won this debate very modestly.

[Walter]

The CNN website did show the reactions of Democrat and Republican voters, and approval ratings by income.

[MFrog]

Obama won the debate? I suppose if you are a liberal, you would say that he did. If you listened impartially, you would have to call it a draw if not lean towards McCain. It was funny watching Obama getting frustrated when his previous talking points were brought up. What does Obama think he is a woman and can change his mind all the time?

When will Americans wake up and realize that the liberal media is essentially buying the election? They eliminated Hillary from the contest and she would be a much better president than Obama. Now they want to further wag the dog and put Obama in the White House. If Americans are dumb enough to be duped into electing someone without knowing his full story (because the media won't tell us the whole truth, just their propagandistic take), we are in for a world of hurt.

[Merry Neilson]

I found the analysis very interesting. I wonder why Obama resonates so positively when on the attack while McCain comes across negatively. It certainly makes me wonder about McCain's latest approach to the election. I wonder if McCain will now focus on issues rather than Obama's associations.

"Tom, your time is up" LOL!!

Thanks

[DC1]

You have got to be kidding me. I am sure that most all of you were instructed by the Obama camp to hurry and post your comment to make things appear in Obama's favor. OBAMA GOT OWNED TONIGHT, it was clear as day. Obama was un prepared, stumbling, unfactual, and proved that he is misguided about the world we live in. Obama did not expect the outright beating he received tonight, and will have to use some serious ice to tend to all of his bruises. If you think that obama won the debate, then you CLEARLY were not watching the debate sober. I think that it is utterly foolish for the majority of you to put the comments you did. Come back to planet earth and watch the debate as it actually happened, and you will see Obama as a whimpering beat up loser. McCain is the victor of this debate hands down, anything to the contrary is ignorant, and lacking common sense.

[Democrats 08]

Obama is so concise on what needs to be done and considerate of the poor and middle class. McCain is full of garbage, his defense of his supporting the failure Bush in his own words "over 90% of the time" is to shamelessly point out those same failed policies he helped create by giving the wealthy more huge tax cuts to fix it all? He would invest all our money left, on tax cuts for his wealthy friends, all we have left on the waste product Iraq war and have a domestic "spending freeze" that would paralyze America here at home for good. One of the main reasons America is in the trouble we are in because the Bush administration instead of investing in the American people with more Domestic spending invested in Iraq and tax cuts for the wealthy! Obama will reverse all of that and get us out of Iraq taking those tax cuts and wasted war spending and re-invest that money in job creation, energy, health care, housing and everything Americans desperately need right NOW. It's obvious why more and more Americans are turning away from the failed policies and ideas of McCain/Bush and moving to get behind Obama.

[joe campos]

mccain wondering arround like an old man that is lost. made him look older and i'm glad he didn't stuble. most
presidenial for obama

[ladyb]

Won it with class and grace

[sam]

what the stupidest thing i have ever heard of. you put these things in people hands who want Obama to start with. When Mccain said something about Obama it went to the bottom but when Obama said something about Mccain it went up.. good grief talk about being biases all the way. I use to like CNN but this just went to far. I hope this gets out big time and people stop watching CNN.what a joke.

[Campbell]

McCain won over all in substance regarding the economy and foreign affairs, but I was disappointed as all American should be because what we really wanted to hear was who was directly responsible for this financial crisis. That is what was missing. Who were the players and what will be done to prevent that from happening again in the future, but overall in content and experience McCain won tonight's debate.

Campbell

[andyt]

I think the most salient points for me today is the discussion on their varying visions for healthcare. Mccain claims Obama healthcare plan aims to nationalize healthcare coverage..while that is partly true, I don't think it's such a bad idea. The reason is this, Obama wants to introduce an accessible, fairly priced government subsidized healthcare plans with favorable rules, and standards that will force the rest of the insurance industry to compete with it. People will still be able to choose between private or government options, but the introduction of a government subsidised plan in the market is going to have a game-changing impact. Imagine. If one person sells one apple for a dollar, and everyone else sells apples for $2, people will either only buy apples from the one who sells it more cheaply, or everyone else is going to have to lower their prices or offer better apples. This is going to drive change across the insurance industry. McCain's healthcare attracts voters with a $5000 tax credit to purchase health insurance, but he fails to mention that he plans to tax health benefits for the first time in history....smart accounting, but it just feels like you are taking money from my left hand to give it to my right.

[Campbell]

McCain won over all in substance regarding the economy and foreign affairs, but I was disappointed as all American should be because what we really wanted to hear was who was directly responsible for this financial crisis. That is what was missing. Who were the players and what will be done to prevent that from happening again in the future, but overall in content and experience McCain won tonight's debate.

Campbell

[peter]

i think this new way of rating is wrong.

[Clarese]

Obama won me over tonight! McCain acted like an angry, old man who keeps telling the same lies over and over. Can you imagine what the next 4 years will be like if he gets elected? No way!

[john]

I am glad we are smart enough to not elect an other McBush in a Gore-Bush kind of election.

Now I am proud of being an American

[steve jackson]

Ah yes Americans once again prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that the mass majority are stupid. They will respond to what they are told to respond to and they will vote for who they are told to vote for.

It's over. Obama is the 44th President of the United States.

And while I am truly, for the first time in my life, fearful of where this country will go.

This is PUT UP or SHUT UP time for Democrats. They will own the government with a container ship load of promises and guarantees they will have to deliver on. They cannot spend the next 4 years blaming Bush and the republicans. They are in charge. They are the bosses. They rule the country.

By November 2012 I expect my taxes to have gone down drastically, there to be millions of new jobs, free healthcare for all Americans, schools and AMerican students to be better in the world, the US to have a better standing in the world, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, etc to all have disbanded their nuclear weapons, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to be over and the US victorious, Osama Bin Laden to be dead, guns to still be legal, and the Earth and Oceans to have healed all the while the US almost totally free of foreign oil and alternative sources of energy to be free flowing.

These are only a few of Obama's promises...I expect him to be the failure he is destined to be and the US to be well on the way to 2nd or third world status.

Great job America, now get your cookie like a good dog.

[denit]

Its quite obvious that Obama won this debate. there is no arguing that.

[brigitte von bulow]

I like the way you have described the debate, it made me smile:)
Yes, Obama won, he has class, style, does not lose patience, has an innate brilliance and answers questions with intelligence and clarity.

When people say that *this is the dirtiest Election ever*, we must not forget that it was Palin who started with telling lies about Obama like this *terrorists*thing (an anti-war activist is NOT a terrorist but a person who refuses to kill or harm others, A peaceful man/woman thus. In most peoples books a GOOD person)

Because of the lies Palin throws around, Obama had to start defending himself. I am sure he would prefer to concentrate on real issues and finding solutions for those.

America shall go from the deep pit it is in right now, to Superpower again, when Obama takes over the reigns. The EU, Australia, China, India and other nations have already shown they are very impressed with Obama and know he would be the leader to at last start the road to peace and economic stability, not alone in the USA but for the rest of the world.

[david tipton]

I feel the debate was closer than that. Actually all early official tracking has McCain ahead by 51-47 post debate in the three biggest battleground states....the rest of the map remains unchanged....scientific results will be in Wed.

Independent, scientific tracking polls using rolling monitoring during polls done in 4 different, key states were close....Oddly enough, the polls had McCain getting consistent higher tracking scores for the first 65 minutes then things appeared even for about 5 minutes then Obama took a small lead for the next 25 minutes and the graph swung back to McCain for the final 30 minutes. It looks like a clear cut McCain win, but it could have been too little too late.

Finally, the pollsters asked for these undecideds to simply write down the two (2) most important issues regarding the election, either candidates or the nation as a whole....
58% responded with the economic crisis (including healthcare)

36% responded with questions about Obama's past and his relationship with so-called radical or even terrorirst groups.

The remainder was fractionally split by no less than 14 topic all garnering less than 1.00% of the sample.

So stand by for complete details.

[Jeff]

The winner of the debate is subjective. I hear many say that McCain won, but again, it's up to the individual. Personally, I thought McCain did a better job, but I fear an Obama presidency, especially at this point in time and I think if people are smart enough, they'd know why.

[Aravind]

McCain truly exhibited his pent up frustration. He just seemed completely out of this debate. Talking about "over head projectors", when we face a 10 trillion dollar debt. Why does he go after piddly issues such as earmarks, bears, and overhead projectors? But the phrase, "that one" certainly demonstrated McCain at his very best, a sore loser, a not so straight talk maverick, and an erratic, individual that likes to roll the dice at the expense of others. Hey, if you can get money from your wife's purse, you can roll dice all day long.