Toldja! Obama wins the town-hall debate; CNN ought to patent that polygraph

ESPN likes to ask its talking-heads panels a question just about every day, it goes something like this: Did Dallas win the game or did Philly lose it? Endlessly entertaining because it's practically unproveable. Now, I can't prove that Barack Obama waltzed to victory in his second head-to-head with John McCain. The polls will come in soon enough and I'm pretty certain they will show a resounding win for Obama. (UPDATE: CNN's flash poll gives it to Obama 54-30.) So, people will spend all day Wednesday debating this imponderable: Did Obama win it? Or did McCain lose it?

I had a cheat sheet. As I mentioned last time, CNN had this sort of polygraph thing going at the bottom of the screen. They handed a roomful of uncommitted Ohio voters (selected by Opinion Research pollsters) these dials that they use in Hollywood to rate TV shows -- not the most scientific instruments, since they nearly kept NBC from putting "Seinfeld" on the air back in the day -- and had them turn the dials up or down based on whether they liked/hated what they were hearing at that moment.

The dials gave a definite edge to Obama in Debate No. 1, and that was reflected in later polling. He won. If anything, the advantage was even more decisive in Debate No. 2. When McCain attacks, viewers dialed him down into negative territory. When Obama attacked, viewers typically responded with mild approval. You might say it was the difference between using a hatchet and using a scalpel. (By the way, when Obama used that line again, his approval line spiked ... again.)

McCain had some spikes: When he talked about Russia. When he talked about hybrid cars. When he closed. But Obama spiked consistently and with greater strength with these uncommitted Ohio voters from the beginning to the end. There are many examples to give, but this one was stunning: a nearly two-minute flatline at the top of the approval scale when Obama talked about Iraq. This, even as Obama slipped from talking about his mother to talking about his policy to criticizing McCain. He could do no wrong.

I predicted he would do better in the town-hall debate format than many thought he would. I was surprised, however, how emphatic this win was, not only in my opinion but in the eyes of uncommitted voters.

I'll leave it to other people to talk about McCain's stage wandering, his odd tics, his interrogating of Brokaw. But I will point out that every time McCain jabbed at or outright attacked Obama, the line took a nosedive into negative territory. When Obama responded to McCain attacks, the line went back into positive territory.

The fact that Pat Buchanan is on MSNBC arguing with everything I have said here gives me greater confidence that Obama won. The fact that CNN's focus group -- the very people twiddling those dials -- were evenly divided over who won the debate gives me pause.

But what a genius idea that polygraph was. CNN gets credit for putting it on screen and extra credit for removing the Democrat and Republican voters from the chart after the first debate.

Finally, what was the deal with Tom Brokaw? "What don't you know?" "What is the McCain Doctrine?" All that was missing was the "If you were a tree" question. Tom, your time is up.

Comments

[Kane]

One of the worst debates ever, happy that Obama didn't take the bait on the summer-ful of townhalls favored by media elites.

Yeah, he won, strictly on the strength of who looks most presidential.

[VeRonda]

Wow! The title is hilarious... I'm watching the analysts now. Too funny!

[nancy]

Obama won (with his jacket on!) He did not have to show off his ability to be casual and down-to-earth or his young, lean, athletic build. OF COURSE he could win on the power of his intellect and his ability to genuinely relate to middle class voters. As usual, his body language was a beautiful thing to watch: Here is a man totally outside of himself, comfortable in his own skin. It is palpable.

[honor]

Both candidates are great Americans. McCain lost tonight, as it was very obvious that he represents old school..We need new ideas and new a new order to take the leadership role to make "A new Deal with Americans" to get out of this mess without special interests.

Obama respresents real change and actions that will change history..Obama has the energy, honor and leadership to represent all of us.. What courage and determination to be the 1st man of color to be president., I am glad to support him as we move towards the election..

TP
Former Republican

[jc]

i think it was a pretty even debate, except McCain kind of came off as a jerk.

I think Obama was a little bit more clear and won this debate very modestly.

[Walter]

The CNN website did show the reactions of Democrat and Republican voters, and approval ratings by income.

[MFrog]

Obama won the debate? I suppose if you are a liberal, you would say that he did. If you listened impartially, you would have to call it a draw if not lean towards McCain. It was funny watching Obama getting frustrated when his previous talking points were brought up. What does Obama think he is a woman and can change his mind all the time?

When will Americans wake up and realize that the liberal media is essentially buying the election? They eliminated Hillary from the contest and she would be a much better president than Obama. Now they want to further wag the dog and put Obama in the White House. If Americans are dumb enough to be duped into electing someone without knowing his full story (because the media won't tell us the whole truth, just their propagandistic take), we are in for a world of hurt.

[Merry Neilson]

I found the analysis very interesting. I wonder why Obama resonates so positively when on the attack while McCain comes across negatively. It certainly makes me wonder about McCain's latest approach to the election. I wonder if McCain will now focus on issues rather than Obama's associations.

"Tom, your time is up" LOL!!

Thanks

[DC1]

You have got to be kidding me. I am sure that most all of you were instructed by the Obama camp to hurry and post your comment to make things appear in Obama's favor. OBAMA GOT OWNED TONIGHT, it was clear as day. Obama was un prepared, stumbling, unfactual, and proved that he is misguided about the world we live in. Obama did not expect the outright beating he received tonight, and will have to use some serious ice to tend to all of his bruises. If you think that obama won the debate, then you CLEARLY were not watching the debate sober. I think that it is utterly foolish for the majority of you to put the comments you did. Come back to planet earth and watch the debate as it actually happened, and you will see Obama as a whimpering beat up loser. McCain is the victor of this debate hands down, anything to the contrary is ignorant, and lacking common sense.

[Democrats 08]

Obama is so concise on what needs to be done and considerate of the poor and middle class. McCain is full of garbage, his defense of his supporting the failure Bush in his own words "over 90% of the time" is to shamelessly point out those same failed policies he helped create by giving the wealthy more huge tax cuts to fix it all? He would invest all our money left, on tax cuts for his wealthy friends, all we have left on the waste product Iraq war and have a domestic "spending freeze" that would paralyze America here at home for good. One of the main reasons America is in the trouble we are in because the Bush administration instead of investing in the American people with more Domestic spending invested in Iraq and tax cuts for the wealthy! Obama will reverse all of that and get us out of Iraq taking those tax cuts and wasted war spending and re-invest that money in job creation, energy, health care, housing and everything Americans desperately need right NOW. It's obvious why more and more Americans are turning away from the failed policies and ideas of McCain/Bush and moving to get behind Obama.

[joe campos]

mccain wondering arround like an old man that is lost. made him look older and i'm glad he didn't stuble. most
presidenial for obama

[ladyb]

Won it with class and grace

[sam]

what the stupidest thing i have ever heard of. you put these things in people hands who want Obama to start with. When Mccain said something about Obama it went to the bottom but when Obama said something about Mccain it went up.. good grief talk about being biases all the way. I use to like CNN but this just went to far. I hope this gets out big time and people stop watching CNN.what a joke.

[Campbell]

McCain won over all in substance regarding the economy and foreign affairs, but I was disappointed as all American should be because what we really wanted to hear was who was directly responsible for this financial crisis. That is what was missing. Who were the players and what will be done to prevent that from happening again in the future, but overall in content and experience McCain won tonight's debate.

Campbell

[andyt]

I think the most salient points for me today is the discussion on their varying visions for healthcare. Mccain claims Obama healthcare plan aims to nationalize healthcare coverage..while that is partly true, I don't think it's such a bad idea. The reason is this, Obama wants to introduce an accessible, fairly priced government subsidized healthcare plans with favorable rules, and standards that will force the rest of the insurance industry to compete with it. People will still be able to choose between private or government options, but the introduction of a government subsidised plan in the market is going to have a game-changing impact. Imagine. If one person sells one apple for a dollar, and everyone else sells apples for $2, people will either only buy apples from the one who sells it more cheaply, or everyone else is going to have to lower their prices or offer better apples. This is going to drive change across the insurance industry. McCain's healthcare attracts voters with a $5000 tax credit to purchase health insurance, but he fails to mention that he plans to tax health benefits for the first time in history....smart accounting, but it just feels like you are taking money from my left hand to give it to my right.

[Campbell]

McCain won over all in substance regarding the economy and foreign affairs, but I was disappointed as all American should be because what we really wanted to hear was who was directly responsible for this financial crisis. That is what was missing. Who were the players and what will be done to prevent that from happening again in the future, but overall in content and experience McCain won tonight's debate.

Campbell

[peter]

i think this new way of rating is wrong.

[Clarese]

Obama won me over tonight! McCain acted like an angry, old man who keeps telling the same lies over and over. Can you imagine what the next 4 years will be like if he gets elected? No way!

[john]

I am glad we are smart enough to not elect an other McBush in a Gore-Bush kind of election.

Now I am proud of being an American

[steve jackson]

Ah yes Americans once again prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that the mass majority are stupid. They will respond to what they are told to respond to and they will vote for who they are told to vote for.

It's over. Obama is the 44th President of the United States.

And while I am truly, for the first time in my life, fearful of where this country will go.

This is PUT UP or SHUT UP time for Democrats. They will own the government with a container ship load of promises and guarantees they will have to deliver on. They cannot spend the next 4 years blaming Bush and the republicans. They are in charge. They are the bosses. They rule the country.

By November 2012 I expect my taxes to have gone down drastically, there to be millions of new jobs, free healthcare for all Americans, schools and AMerican students to be better in the world, the US to have a better standing in the world, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, etc to all have disbanded their nuclear weapons, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to be over and the US victorious, Osama Bin Laden to be dead, guns to still be legal, and the Earth and Oceans to have healed all the while the US almost totally free of foreign oil and alternative sources of energy to be free flowing.

These are only a few of Obama's promises...I expect him to be the failure he is destined to be and the US to be well on the way to 2nd or third world status.

Great job America, now get your cookie like a good dog.

[denit]

Its quite obvious that Obama won this debate. there is no arguing that.

[brigitte von bulow]

I like the way you have described the debate, it made me smile:)
Yes, Obama won, he has class, style, does not lose patience, has an innate brilliance and answers questions with intelligence and clarity.

When people say that *this is the dirtiest Election ever*, we must not forget that it was Palin who started with telling lies about Obama like this *terrorists*thing (an anti-war activist is NOT a terrorist but a person who refuses to kill or harm others, A peaceful man/woman thus. In most peoples books a GOOD person)

Because of the lies Palin throws around, Obama had to start defending himself. I am sure he would prefer to concentrate on real issues and finding solutions for those.

America shall go from the deep pit it is in right now, to Superpower again, when Obama takes over the reigns. The EU, Australia, China, India and other nations have already shown they are very impressed with Obama and know he would be the leader to at last start the road to peace and economic stability, not alone in the USA but for the rest of the world.

[david tipton]

I feel the debate was closer than that. Actually all early official tracking has McCain ahead by 51-47 post debate in the three biggest battleground states....the rest of the map remains unchanged....scientific results will be in Wed.

Independent, scientific tracking polls using rolling monitoring during polls done in 4 different, key states were close....Oddly enough, the polls had McCain getting consistent higher tracking scores for the first 65 minutes then things appeared even for about 5 minutes then Obama took a small lead for the next 25 minutes and the graph swung back to McCain for the final 30 minutes. It looks like a clear cut McCain win, but it could have been too little too late.

Finally, the pollsters asked for these undecideds to simply write down the two (2) most important issues regarding the election, either candidates or the nation as a whole....
58% responded with the economic crisis (including healthcare)

36% responded with questions about Obama's past and his relationship with so-called radical or even terrorirst groups.

The remainder was fractionally split by no less than 14 topic all garnering less than 1.00% of the sample.

So stand by for complete details.

[Jeff]

The winner of the debate is subjective. I hear many say that McCain won, but again, it's up to the individual. Personally, I thought McCain did a better job, but I fear an Obama presidency, especially at this point in time and I think if people are smart enough, they'd know why.

[Aravind]

McCain truly exhibited his pent up frustration. He just seemed completely out of this debate. Talking about "over head projectors", when we face a 10 trillion dollar debt. Why does he go after piddly issues such as earmarks, bears, and overhead projectors? But the phrase, "that one" certainly demonstrated McCain at his very best, a sore loser, a not so straight talk maverick, and an erratic, individual that likes to roll the dice at the expense of others. Hey, if you can get money from your wife's purse, you can roll dice all day long.

[R.REID]

I agree. this debate was amazing and obama shined!

[LOUIS eman]

McCain should be more into economics and Obama at present time is needed where in economic policies I believe the Democrat can help the Americans.Obama is the 21st century man to lead America and America can lead the world.

[Joy]

I'm responding to: Posted by: Walter | October 07, 2008 at 10:24 PM, who said, "...Obama won the debate? I suppose if you are a liberal, you would say that he did. If you listened impartially, you would have to call it a draw if not lean towards McCain. It was funny watching Obama getting frustrated when his previous talking points were brought up. What does Obama think he is a woman and can change his mind all the time?

[My response: "... does Obama think he is a woman and can change his mind all the time?" Uh, dude, did you happen to notice that McCain changed his mind dramatically about the ecomomic crisis within a 24 hour span, as well as lurching wildly from one solution to another for weeks. Now, hon, WHO changes his mind all the time? Your negative generalization about women is also a point noted as typical of your party, i.e., putting down Hillary as a "B...", which McCain laughed along with at a gathering of his supporters last year... and putting out a VP for her looks, even though her total and dangerously small concept of foreign affairs relies upon what other nations she can see from her front porch!]

Walter goes on: "When will Americans wake up and realize that the liberal media is essentially buying the election? They eliminated Hillary from the contest and she would be a much better president than Obama. Now they want to further wag the dog and put Obama in the White House. If Americans are dumb enough to be duped into electing someone without knowing his full story (because the media won't tell us the whole truth, just their propagandistic take), we are in for a world of hurt.

[Dude, there you go again. Blaming and shaming, rather than understanding that someone always wins and someone else always loses, and both Hillary and McCain didn't do the right things to win, such as stand against the invasion of Iraq BEFORE it dragged our entire nation into massive debt, slaughtered over 4000 young Americans, wounded countless more, and killed untold thousands of Iraqis -- as well as scaring and disillusioning most of the other nations in the world due to our invasion and the torture of prisoners. McCain has been a lock-step NON-Maverick by fighting with his/your party against REGULATION for over 20 years... and now has magically "changed his mind" ... what... like a woman?... once again to suit the message that's needed during the campaign season. (Country First? I don't think so.) People should stand for what they believe in, and he has... (albeit with considerable waffling and mind-changing around campaign seasons)... but that just doesn't happen to be what America wants or needs. He's not a horrible person, he's just losing. Even little kids have to learn how to lose, be a good sport, and perhaps he should have learned by now not to use up all his campaign time and money waffling, and vilifying the opposition, rather than speaking to what our nation really needs right now, which is the experience, vision, character, judgement, intelligence, and ability to unite and involve all of us to work together.

[Gerald White]

I think that McCain's comment of THAT ( refering to Obama ) will follow him as the remark by Pres. Clinton, THAT WOMAN. He should be ashaimed of himself for acting childish and not shaking hands at the end. Then the pretty blond wife that holds the hands behind the back as to not shake hands with anyone. Big boys do not act like this. McCain lost my vote last night.

[AD]

McCain was lost , made numerous staements that made no sense . Was confused with whom he was talking to. Tom ask to give priority to three things and he could not remember what they were , and had to write them down. And my god does he have to continue to make what I think are jokes that he laughs at but nobody ever seems to know he is joking .
And when delivering an answer he was constantly out of breath . It is very un-nerving to watch . And really for those who are so sure mcCain won
I am astounded by that view .It is staggering that some can see the debate through that lens . And gives proof to the dumbing down of America . And as far as one person commented in regards to cnn being biased toward Obama . I like you are sickened by Cnn, but for the opposite reason .
Everytime something is said positive about Obama , it as if they somehow say t in a negative way . And anytime someone is stating that Obama has the lead , Anderson {bought} cooper always says , well that can change at any moment . There keeping them honest is a joke from both sides . And in the name of bias they oh yea dig deep if something negative comes out about Palin , they turn over evey stone to find something on Bidden {maybe he staep on a few ants that day . Just report and in the name of bias you are wasting time for both sides . I would rather watch msnbc or fox at least with them you know where they stand and can balance it . But with cnn they are sneaky . With acception to a few who are dem and rep stradegist.
A

[Mona]

To John:

"for the first time in my life, fearful of where this country will go."

"I expect him to be the failure he is destined to be and the US to be well on the way to 2nd or third world status."

Where have you been? It's a little late to get scared now. Bush, McCain and the likes have been raising those fears for quite some time now. And hello, we're already well on our way to 2nd or third world status.

Obama had nothing to do with that!

[Politi-phile]

Setting aside the myriad reasons why Obama is a far better candidate, did anyone else find it amusing (and perhaps cruel on someone's part) that McCain couldn't touch the ground if he sat on his chair??? He leaned on it, but mostly paced around like the angry, cackling little gnome that he is. Not in a million years could he even adopt the calm and composed posture of Obama as he sat in his seat, listening intently. Not only is McCain clearly not presidential, he can't even look it.

[Susan]

I believe that the reason there is so much energy against Obama is because for months people have been asking questions about him and for months the news media and the Republican candidate have ignored the questions being asked. Now McCain is finally addressing the concerns of the people and they are ready to get the answers they have been begging for. The media is as one sided as I have ever seen them. They have not vetted Obama in any since of the word. People might like Obama better if they felt like they were getting some full disclosure. Quick incomplete answers are all that ever come from the media or the Obama camp. That can be frustrating. Fear is brewed more from questions that are not answered. It is unsettling. I basis my vote on two things 1. the policies the candidate is going to take on issues and 2. the candidates character, morals and values. Integrity is extremely important to me. Obama has not given me any confidence that I can trust what he has planned for America. I do not like his policies. I feel like he will move the United States closer and closer to a socialist society. I like captialism. I think it has been the strength of our society. Many may not agree and they may vote for Obama, but I think his thinking will lead us away from liberty and the American Dream. You know I was never a talk radio kind of girl, but I have turned to talk radio not because I agree with everything they say or even how they say it...but I need to hear both sides and the main media is not giving fair coverage. I have not agreed with their coverage of the war and now I am very disappointed in their coverage of the Presidential campaign. I don't listen must to anyone anymore. It is all so frustrating.

So please do not get too upset if people are on edge. There were better candidates running for office and I wonder how in the world we gave them up for the two men who are running now. I put a huge part of that responsiblity on the untrustworthy media. Sorry if you don't agree. I am not asking anyone to but it is how I feel.