Jay Leno in prime time: This is a win-win-win situation

UPDATED with radio.

UPDATE 2: TVB reader Don Day called for NBC to do this two months ago!

The amazing thing about NBC's deal to give Jay Leno the last hour of prime time is not that they offered it. Have you seen the NBC prime time lineup lately? It's got more holes in it than O.J.'s defense.

The amazing thing is that Jay said yes. And by saying yes, Jay Leno has given NBC permission to create a fourth hour of late night to go with its four hours of morning news. Who said you can't do "The TOnight Show" at 9 p.m. in the Midwest? You can do "The Today Show" at 10 a.m. nowadays, can't you?

Bill Carter has the full details, which is only fitting, since he's been reporting the life of Leno since 1992. Here's my take:

There are so many ways this deal works. Off the top of my head:

• It gives the local affiliates a sure, stable lead-in to their late local news -- you've got to think GM's everywhere are popping corks after suffering through years of dismal lead-ins. Here in Kansas City KSHB suffered doubly in the November book because of appallingly low numbers from "My Own Worst Enemy" (aptly titled) and other lead-ins to late news. It took a hit in the evenings, and then took another hit in the mornings when people woke up and tuned into whatever network affiliate they were watching the night before.

• It gets NBC out of the 22-hours-a-week prime time programming business, at which it was presently sucking, and into the 17-hours-a-week business, just like Fox.

• And of course, it locks up Jay Leno and prevents him from going to ABC -- where, frankly, he would not have done as well as he will here.

• It's also a plus for Leno's audience, which was feeling like NBC was forcing Conan O'Brien on them while taking Leno off the air, possibly for as long as a year. This reduces that ill will and puts Leno on at a more viewer-friendly hour, without taking anything away from O'Brien.

It's true that Leno is delivering less than 5 million viewers a night, which is impressive by late night standards but is low even for NBC prime time. However, I think that number will rise slightly given the fact that it's on at an earlier hour. Turning to the July 2008 Nielsen book for Kansas City, I see the HUT level for KSHB at 10:30 p.m. averaged between 48 percent and 52 percent depending on the night of the week. HUT means households using television. At 9 p.m., the HUT levels for KSHB ranged from 62 percent to 67 percent, excluding Fridays which were a statistical anomaly. So if you extrapolate, it's not hard to imagine Leno getting 1.2 million to 1.4 million more viewers a night just based on TV usage -- and that's not even including the suddenly solid lead-ins NBC will deliver Leno with shows like "SVU."

More to come (as they say on the show) ....

I talked about this some more on the radio. Here are two clips: one, the CBS Radio News, the second on KMJ Radio with Chris Daniel:

Comments

[FrankM]

Since this looks like it will still be a taped show, NBC should give affiliates the option to put news on at 10pm(ET), and running Leno at 10:35(ET), Conan 11:35(ET), etc.

Imaging how well-rested every viewer will be as they essentially move their late night shows up an hour!

[tom roche]

Maybe the headline should be "Nightline Saved!"

[Todd]

I was looking forward to not having to see his lame comedy again. I haven't liked him since he screwed Dave over for the show. He's had his time, get some new blood on the air with some edge.

[Lynn C.]

It's so brilliant and it was right there in front of NBC all along — Leno in the primetime end-zone is going to win big. Only insomniacs will stay up for the others, now. Good laughs and lights out at a civilized hour: What's not to love!

[Matt]

The only thing about this that makes sense is that NBC's primetime lineup is such a disaster that Leno can't do much worse ... but he will. Look at what's on at 9 pm central -- CSI Miami, CSI NY, Without a Trace. Those shows share a demo with Leno. Leno will also have a very low ceiling. 6 million viewers a night might be better than what NBC is getting now but it's not a win if CBS is getting 12 million. This is also going to be rough for the Thursday night lineup. I don't see The Office and 30 Rock audience fitting with Leno. This just seems like a desperate move to keep Leno from taking 5 million viewers to ABC or syndication.

[mike]

I was not looking forward to Conan at all. The alternative was to watch Letterman repeat lame lines and make faces for the whole show. His exchanges with Shaffer have gotten old. Glad to see Leno sticking around longer.

[Joseph Nebus]

I'd thought I first saw the Leno-at-10 (I'm in the Eastern Time Zone) idea here. Who knew your commentators were driving the entertainment industry?

I'd thought five days a week might be a bit much for how much time it squeezes out of prime time, but it's probably worth experimenting with anyway.

[Scott H]

Aaron, I know your interest in late-night goes way back, but I think you're being entirely too positive about this. First, don't Leno's viewers skew older? Does NBC want that in their prime-time numbers? Aren't they all about the 18-49 demo?

Second, does the old "people just keep the dial on one station and watch whatever comes on" theory REALLY still apply in the age of the TiVo and DVR--or even the age of the remote???

Third, doesn't this essentially withdraw NBC even further from the scripted entertainment business? They're basically telling viewers looking for that to go elsewhere.

Fourth, what happens when Leno is in reruns? Just how low can the ratings go?

Fifth, what happens, if after the first few months, Leno's ratings drop below what the old 10pm shows were doing? Is this solely about money? Does the fact that NBC can produce his show for so much less than anything else they could fill the time with outweigh the lower ratings they'll be getting? Aren't they tying their own hands? You can cancel a regular series, or a reality series, in a heartbeat. What do you do with a guy who has a contract?

Sixth, doesn't this mean that the guests will all go to the 10pm slot to promote their stuff? What does that leave Conan with? How happy is he about this deal? It basically keeps him in the second slot, behind Leno. It gives him something called "The Tonight Show", but not the spot as the premier talk show host on the network, getting the big guests. He's still second banana.

I really don't see the win-win-win here. Only in GE's bottom line, and I think that's incredibly temporary.

[You will be interested in my posting later today about the numbers for NBC in the 10 p.m. ET hour.--AB]

[Mark Anderson]

This has everything to do with the weak economy...Let's face it.

Think of the millions NBC will save in programming costs.

Personally, I think this weakens Conan more than anything else. What good is 11:30 if you still have to play second fiddle to Jay Leno?

[matt stechel]

i guess i shouldn't be surprised by this move---they have been hurting this season more then ever in the development process, this just takes them one step further into not being a network anymore tho. two hours a night??? what are they the cw??? you know what would be interesting is if Fox all of a sudden decided it wanted to add the 3rd hour...the two nets would effectively switch places just like that. unbelivable. this really could be the moment where NBC goes down the tubes as a network. and becomes an offically an also-ran...or of course it could be the brillant tactical move they need. i honestly can't tell.....but the bottom line and the affiliates will be happy. as they say the quality shows are on NBC.

maybe this could actually help Chuck and Heroes and Life and Friday Night Lights (something has to go on Friday nights) and the two law and orders and medium and the thurs night sitcoms--i guess that right there plus five nights of leno and football sundays and you've pretty much got their fall lineup. not a bad way to shore up the short term problems plaguing them, but this is really not a long term solution----is it??? seriously? is it? cause its like having your cake and eating it too---i gotta imagine conan's gonna be pissed about this. it'd add a fantastic wrinkle if he jumped ship and took over letterman in 2010, or 2012 or whenever dave's contract is up.

[a different mike]

My thought was similar (though less snarky) than Lisa de Moraes of the W. Post -- this kind of screws Conan. Everyone takes one step forward, but Leno is still in front of Conan. In the same city with the same network, Leno is likely to have the pick of guests. I guess it works for NBC financially, since their prime time is so dismal, but I think Leno is unlikely to do anything especially daring or "must-see" in his new slot.