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February 22, 2009

Welcome to late night, Jimmy! Craig Ferguson counters with Paris Hilton, Archbishop Tutu, Amy Adams, Holly Hunter....

Craig Ferguson isn't wasting any time in moving in for the kill against his new late-night competition Jimmy Fallon. Though Fallon is expected to draw a mostly male audience to his "Late Night" franchise, which begins a week from Monday on NBC, and Ferguson has built his base with 30- and 40-something women viewers, the guest lineup for March 2-6 strongly suggests that CBS wants to ensure that not a single member of the Ferguson core even thinks about straying over to Fallonland.

On Monday, March 2, Ferguson welcomes Paris Hilton. Now, whatever you think about Paris Hilton, she's a draw, especially for women. And when you consider she's going up against Robert De Niro -- who is not my idea of an interesting talk-show guest, I'm sorry to say -- and it's Monday night, often the biggest night of the week for CBS (with "CSI Miami" leading into late news), Ferguson should do very well. His second guest, Dee Dee Myers, just wrote a book about women running the world; say no more. (Fallon's second guest: Van Morrison.)

On Tuesday, March 3, Fallon's guests will be Tina Fey, Jon Bon Jovi, and musical guest Santigold. Craig's countering with Kristin Davis and Wolfgang Puck. Advantage Fallon.

Wednesday looks fascinating: While Fallon jokes with Cameron Diaz and Billy Crudup, Ferguson is going to have what I already predict will be one of the most literate late-night dialogues of 2009 when he welcome Nobel Peace Prize winner Archbishop Desmond Tutu to his show.

Thursday on Fallon: Donald Trump, Serena Williams, and musical guest Ludacris. On Ferguson: Holly Hunter, music by Andrew Bird. To each their own, eh?

Finally, the first week of head-to-head competition ends with Drew Barrymore and Mario Batali on Fallon against Amy Adams, Ed McMahon and music by M. Ward on Ferguson.

I would say Ferguson has a couple of opportunities there to blunt the raised interest in NBC by bringing some solid guests of his own. Ultimately, though, these shows are about their hosts, and Ferguson has already shown he is a force to be reckoned with. Absent a fantastic effort from Fallon, with CBS and NBC already in a tie for audience and NBC enjoying only a slight demographic edge, I think the week of March 2 might be the last that Ferguson loses to Fallon for quite some time.

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