Bye, Jay. Heeeeeere's Conan!

AUDIO: I talked about Jay Leno's final shows with KMBZ Radio this morning. (d/l) I'm also being taped by CBS Radio News tonight for use in their weekend and Monday coverage.

In his final appearance in February as the most dangerous guest on “Late Night with Conan O'Brien,” Norm Macdonald described Jay Leno's decision to stay at NBC as only he can.

“He outfoxed you again!” Macdonald told the host as O'Brien winced. “Your agent's like, 'There's good news and bad news. You are doing the “Tonight Show.” It's true. But -- remember that discussion we had where you said, “I'll never have to f---ing follow Leno again?”'”

Leave it to a former fake newscaster to invent a fictional scene that rang oh-so-true. Macdonald's joke certainly speaks to the anxiety many people feel about Conan O'Brien's move into the “Tonight” throne after nearly a 16-year wait.

Ever since O'Brien was crowned the successor to Leno way back in 2004, his fans, myself included, have been waiting for this day. But with the news that Leno had signed a new deal with NBC to host a show starting at 9 p.m. CT weeknights in the fall, I can't help but feel a little cheated, and privately I'll bet Conan agrees with Macdonald, too.

Still, the funny kid from Brookline will have late night's biggest stage to himself for this summer (beginning 10:35 p.m. Monday on KSHB-41). And during that time, here's what you can expect.

• An entirely new look. A studio audience twice the size of the one that saw O'Brien in New York will crowd into his facility at L.A.'s Universal Studios for “Tonight Show” tapings. The setup will be like Johnny Carson's “Tonight” studio with more crowd shots (Carson almost never put his audience on camera except for segments like “Stump the Band”).

• Max and Andy. The newly renamed Tonight Show Band went from 7 to 8 permanent members, with the addition of frequent Weinberg fill-in James Wormworth on drums. (Max will leave later in the summer to tour with Bruce Springsteen.) And Andy Richter will be back, this time as “announcer” -- a sidekick who doesn't have to keep the sofa warm.

• A great first show. People forget this because O'Brien's first few months on NBC were a little shaky (in the sense that Bernie Madoff's ledger was a little shaky), but that very first “Late Night” was -- aside from the host's nerves -- almost flawless. O'Brien sang “Edelweiss” as an audience member wearing a Nazi uniform wept. His writing staff killed with the premiere of “Actual Items,” a satire of Leno's “Headlines” that would become the show's longest-running comedy bit. The next morning, O'Brien preemptively ripped his own debut in an op-ed in the New York Times. All in all, a great start.

When I brought up that first show in an interview, O'Brien joked, “My plan is to have a really good first show, then an even better second show and then a really bad third show. And then Thursday, a recovery show before finishing strong on Friday.” But seriously, he said, “I want to be a kid on Christmas morning with a new toy, the 'Tonight Show.' That's what I want people to see. That's what works for me. People tuning in don't want to see Conan trying to live up to the responsibility of hosting the 'Tonight Show.' They want to see me having a good time.” Conan's first guest will be Will Ferrell, a one-man laugh factory who was also on O'Brien's last “Late Night” and should be money on Monday as well.

• And then, changes. “I get restless,” O'Brien said. “I'll get into the show and it'll be one thing for a couple of weeks and then it will morph. I'll want to expand one part of the show and shrink another part. That happened on 'Late Night.' I don't like the show to be the same. That's when I bump up against the walls of my prison cell.”

• But not that much change. “I don't want to overthink it,” he said. “I don't want to get into a situation where I'm saying, 'Well, this is a funny idea but is it a “Tonight Show” idea?' Because a lot of viewers are going to be watching me on Hulu.” (Speaking of which, if you want a laugh or three before Monday's debut, watch the videos featuring O'Brien and Richter at the NBC.com web site.)

• More energy from Dave. Let's face it --Letterman's had it too easy. For more than a decade the late-night ratings race has been mostly a game of keep-away, with Leno enjoying an edge of at least a million viewers over his CBS rival. This has fueled a obvious complacency in Letterman, who only comes to life when he has a story to tell from his desk or -- as in his recent set of automaker interviews -- can mine a subject he's personally interested in.

But now, with first place up for grabs, I look for Dave to step it up a notch. Craig Ferguson, his hard-charging colleague who hosts the “Late Late Show,” darn near caught O'Brien in the ratings this winter. (And Ferguson just edged ahead of O'Brien's successor, Jimmy Fallon.) There wasn't any magic involved. The suave Scotsman kept his show fresh and unpredictable. There's no reason Letterman can't do the same — and I expect him to at least try.

Comments

[Mark Anderson]

The story everyone seems to be missing is that this is either going to be one or the other. The affiliates are never going to let NBC keep low rated Jay Leno on in primetime 5 nights a week (see the fiasco with the Boston affiliate). So either Conan is a hit, and Leno is let go...Or Leno is brought back, and Conan is let go. But it will be one or the other. That's what people don't seem to understand...This isn't Conan vs. Dave...It's Conan vs. Jay. And come some random date in the future, there will be only one survivor.

[Mike Beckham]

I believe Jimmy pulled ahead of Craig again. I think its probably going to be like that for a while but the youth demo, Jimmy owns that.

[ML]

Dave Letterman is mostly a spent force. He only shines when he has exceptional guests that pique his interest. But, mostly he acts like host of a daytime game show - sticking to a safe, well worn formula and shilling for advertisers in monologues sprinkled with product placements. I don't think he will change much next season but he doesn't care any more.