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June 18, 2009

Conan's lead over Letterman shrinks to 100,000. Maybe he should start warming up the crowd again.

NUP_134679_1440We’ll get to the ratings in a moment. First, a couple of things I’ve observed about the new Conan compared with the old Conan.

Before he signed on as “The Tonight Show” host for the first time, Conan O’Brien promised me — and many other reporters — that his show would change incrementally. He figured that his new time period and the Super Mario Bros.-inspired backdrop of his new Universal Studios set would be shocking enough to viewers. He promised he would only tweak the other parts of the show formula that has made him what he is, the next-generation king of late night TV.

Let me address a couple of these tweaks, which have mostly gone unnoticed by reviewers of the first three weeks of the new “Tonight” show.

One is what Conan does after his monologue. For 16 years on NBC, he would turn to his bandleader, Max Weinberg, and say something like, “Max, how ya doing?” For the first few years, Max would respond by hitting his drums and leading the band in a musical number, a “transition” it’s called, which would be Conan’s cue to walk over to his desk. Later, Max started responding with something like, “Fine, Conan,” and then bang on his drums.

I always thought it was weird that Conan would persist in asking Max how he was doing even after it became clear that Max would always respond with a passive-aggressive message that it’s time to move along.

Well, no more. In the new “Tonight” format, Max and the band play Conan into a break. When we return from a break, there’s Conan at his desk. I know what you’re thinking: But Dave’s been doing that for years. Yes, and in fact, David Letterman had exactly the same problem for years.

Back in the 1980s, when Dave was at NBC, he and his bandleader, Paul Shaffer, would rap while Dave walked over to his desk. Then Dave arrived at CBS, and Paul suddenly had this great big orchestra with horns, and someone felt it was important for this orchestra to be heard while Dave went over to his desk. Problem is, it killed the chemistry between him and Paul. For years they tried to get it back, to no avail. Finally, the decision was made to just chuck it and have Alan Kalter, the announcer, do a funny voice-over while the band played. This, actually, was a brilliant move. We hear more of the band than ever on the “Late Show,” and Dave doesn’t have to suffer through more phony applause as he introduces each guest on his lineup.

Conan’s producer, Jeff Ross, probably had several reasons for eliminating the toss to Max besides the persistent awkwardness: the addition of Andy Richter, a different time wheel for “Tonight” compared with “Late Night,” etc. But the result has been a noticeable upgrade in smooth.

The other tweak, unfortunately, has had not so great results. This was brought to my attention by a couple of readers, one of them a longtime member of the television industry and also longtime reader of mine, who prefers I keep her/his identity to myself.

"I like Conan just fine, but why does he take so long to start the monologue? The lingering behind the curtain, the looooong stroll to his mark, the prolonged applause--get out there and tell jokes already! Thank you."

That’s a very good point, and I’d noticed it too, but until this email arrived I hadn’t thought to measure the delay. Well, I watched the clock and on Wednesday’s broadcast it took Conan 97 seconds from the end of Richter’s “O’Brieeen” to introducing his first joke. Most of that 97 seconds consisted of the crowd going nuts, Conan telling the crowd to calm down, the crowd going nuts some more, Conan looking nervously impatient, etc. On Tuesday’s show the delay was 77 seconds, and Monday’s “Tonight” monologue started 95 seconds after the host walked out. By comparison, the host of the CBS “Late Show” started his first joke a brisk 39 seconds after Kalter’s “Lllllletterman!”

Why, you may ask, is Conan O’Brien still getting the crazy-fan treatment three weeks into his program? Very simply, because it’s being encouraged. Again, this is a problem Letterman worked through nearly 16 years ago. When he first went on CBS, he started getting nightly standing ovations. The adoring crowd some nights would hijack the monologue. And then, someone did something about it. Audiences were actually told to stay in their seats and not get too lather-mouthed when the host came onstage. In recent years the folks steering the “Late Show” crowds seem to have found the right balance between enthusiasm and restraint. It is, after all, people’s bedtime when they watch this thing.

Now Conan’s facing the same issue, and I have a simple solution for the “Tonight” show staff: Have him do warmup again. Back in the “Late Night” days, he used to participate in the preshow ritual with the studio audience. He’d come right into the seats and, with the band backing him up, belt out a blazing version of “Burning Love” in his best Elvis — hair sticking straight up, Conan shimmying and shaking, serenading women in the audience. The crowd went nuts — and then, having gotten that out of their system, they’d pull back a little for the broadcast.

Thanks to reader Mark Magers of Kansas City, I’ve learned that ritual has gone away. Magers went to a “Tonight” show taping and reports that the warmup was now handled by comedian Jimmy Pardo and Andy the announcer. No Conan.

That would explain the unbridled nuttiness that goes on when O’Brien takes the stage. An easy way to deal with that would be to bring Conan on stage, even for just half a minute, to say hi and soak in the love. That's how they've done it for years with Letterman. It could help tighten up the intro of the "Tonight" show — unless, of course, NBC is happy delaying the monologue by nearly two minutes every night. (Wasn’t this the same bunch of network executives who sped up the “Late Night” theme and lopped several bars off the intro because they thought it was taking too long to get to the show?)

The other thing Conan could do is hold off his nightly performance of the crowd-pleasing “string dance” until after he’s told his first joke. The string dance is a classic example of pandering to the studio audience at the expense of annoying people in the home audience. He should save that stuff for when he needs it, like when a joke bombs. Johnny Carson used to tap-dance to “Tea for Two” when one of his punchlines died. The problem, of course, is that in today’s late night world, every punchline gets an ovation.


Here’s NBC’s ratings blast for week two of the late-night fights. The margin between Conan and Dave is 100,000 viewers. Wow. Now, I expected Dave to close the gap with Conan in total viewers, though not in the all-important younger demographics .... still, that’s pretty amazing given the fact that Letterman trailed Jay Leno by more than a million viewers a night for 12 years.

Also noteworthy is the unusual mention of week three (see boldface), even though this is ostensibly a week-two ratings summary. Hibberd's got a chart showing how Conan's ratings in the demo have come down to earth, which is true ... but they're still better than Leno's were.

CONAN TAKES WEEK TWO IN EVERY KEY RATINGS CATEGORY 'THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH CONAN O'BRIEN' DOMINATES ITS SECOND WEEK OVER 'LATE SHOW' IN EVERY IMPORTANT DEMO – ADULTS, MEN AND WOMEN 18-34, 18-49 AND 25-54 – ALSO CLAIMS THE WEEK IN TOTAL VIEWERS

CONAN WINS THE WEEK BY 79 PERCENT IN 18-49 VIEWERS, ‘TONIGHT’S’ BIGGEST MARGIN AGAINST A FULL WEEK OF ‘LATE SHOW’ ORIGINALS, EXCLUDING CONAN’S PREMIERE WEEK, SINCE THE ‘FRIENDS’ FINALE

CONAN’S MARGIN SOARS TO 177 PERCENT IN ADULTS 18-34 JIMMY FALLON OUT-DELIVERS LETTERMAN IN 18-49 VIEWERS BY 1 PERCENT AND IN 18-34 VIEWERS BY 61 PERCENT, DESPITE STARTING AN HOUR LATER THAN LETTERMAN

UNIVERSAL CITY, Calif. – June 18, 2009 – “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien” has delivered a convincing victory in its second week on the air, with dominant wins in every important demographic – adults, men and women 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 – plus a victory in total viewers. 

Conan won the week over all cable and broadcast entertainment competition, beating his closest rival, CBS’s “Late Show with David Letterman,” by a 79 percent margin in adult 18-49 viewers, despite the controversy involving Gov. Sarah Palin that has boosted interest in “Late Show,” and a lineup of prominent “Late Show” guests last week that included Howard Stern and Julia Roberts.  The 79 percent advantage is “Tonight’s” most dominant win over a full week of “Late Show” originals, excluding Conan’s premiere week, in five years (since the week of the “Friends” finale, May 3-7, 2004). 

Conan’s lead last week soared to 177 percent in the younger half of the target 18-49 demographic, adults 18-34 (1.040 million adults 18-34 vs. 376,000).  In men 18-34, the margin was 245 percent (545,000 vs. 158,000).  The median age of Conan’s audience last week was 45.7, 11 years younger than Letterman’s 56.7.

“Conan continues to out-perform our most optimistic expectations,” said Rick Ludwin, Executive Vice President, Late Night and Primetime Series, NBC Entertainment. “This business is all about delivering the key demographic groups, and for Conan to dominate every important demographic through his first two weeks is a real ratings home run.”

Conan has won 10 of 10 nights to date over “Late Show” in adults 18-49 and virtually every other important demographic.  Conan has also led every significant demo for the first two nights of the current week, including June 15, the night of David Letterman’s second apology to Gov. Palin, according to Nielsen’s fast national ratings.

NBC’s demographic dominance last week extended to 12:35 a.m. ET, where “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” not only beat CBS’s “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” in all key categories, but out-delivered Letterman by 1 percent in adult 18-49 viewers (1.141 million adults 18-49 vs. 1.126 million) and by 61 percent in adult 18-34 viewers (606,000 vs. 376,000), despite Jimmy’s later start time.  In 18-49 rating, Jimmy tied Dave on five of five nights last week.

In its two weeks following “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien,” “Late Night” has won over “Late Late Show” by an average of 77 percent in adult 18-49 viewers, up from a 46 percent margin of victory for Jimmy Fallon earlier this season.

For the week of June 8-12, Conan’s average 2.013 million adults 18-49 topped the 1.126 million of Letterman; in total viewers, Conan’s audience of 3.771 million persons beat Letterman's 3.669 million; and in adults 18-34, Conan’s 1.040 million out-scored Letterman’s 376,000.  At 12:35 a.m. ET, Jimmy Fallon's 1.141 million adults 18-49 for the week out-delivered Ferguson's 665,000; in total viewers, Jimmy's 1.944 million beat Ferguson's 1.720 million; and in adults 18-34, Jimmy's 606,000 topped Ferguson's 247,000.

WEEKLY AVERAGES (According to in-home viewing figures from Nielsen Media Research for the week of June 8-12. Ratings reflect “live plus same day” data unless otherwise noted.  Season-to-date figures are averages of “live plus seven day” data except for the two most recent weeks, which are “live plus same day.”)

ADULTS 18-49
11:35 p.m. ET
NBC “Tonight,” 1.5 rating, 6 share
CBS “Late Show,” 0.9/3
ABC “Nightline,” 1.0/4
12:05 a.m. ET
ABC “Kimmel,” 0.6/3*
12:35 a.m. ET
NBC “Late Night,” 0.9/5
CBS “Late Late Show,” 0.5/3
1:35 a.m. ET
NBC “Last Call,” 0.5/3*

TOTAL VIEWERS

11:35 p.m. ET
NBC “Tonight,” 3.8 million viewers
CBS “Late Show,” 3.7 million viewers
ABC “Nightline,” 3.4 million viewers
12:05 a.m. ET
ABC “Kimmel,” 1.7 million viewers*
12:35 a.m. ET
NBC “Late Night,” 1.9 million viewers
CBS “Late Late Show,” 1.7 million viewers*
1:35 a.m. ET
NBC “Last Call,” 1.0 million viewers*
* Monday's “Last Call” and the Monday and Wednesday “Kimmel” telecasts were encores.

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