Two things to bear in mind about the Conan O'Brien mess
Every third blog seems to have an online poll as a way to
whore for pageviews gauge the public pulse about the NBC situation.
Everyone seems to have an opinion, but not everyone has an informed opinion. Specifically, there are a couple of points people keep missing here.
1. Late night is a long haul. That is why "Tonight Show's" 40-50 percent slippage in ratings since Conan took over is not consequential. In two years, that number will be back up, and in three years, Letterman may be off the air (his soon-to-be-signed deal goes through 2012). NBC is still competitive with CBS in 18-49 and 18-34. Those audiences are the future of late night. Conan is only going to pick up more of those, while Dave is only going to lose them (mostly to old age, as they graduate out of the demographic). And Jay is going to lose them, too.
From 1993 to 1995, Conan O'Brien regained much of the audience he had lost when he took over the "Late Night" franchise. During that time he had to undergo fairly stressful, if not humiliating, 13-week renewals. But that was better than this time, when his long-term deal meant nothing in the face of a bossy colleague.
It's remarkable that NBC would let another talent representing a decade or more of unrealized future revenues walk out the door, when executives who can remember the last time it happened are still at the network. But hey, they've got Jimmy Fallon, and regardless of how lame you think he is, he'll come along, too. Long-term, people.
2. This isn't just about the host. OK, OK, we get it, people — you don't feel sorry for a millionaire. Neither does Conan. But what these critics miss is the fact that this millionaire just asked 100 or so people to uproot their lives and move with him 3,000 miles, into a market where they probably would have to buy an overpriced house, all to keep their low-six-figure-high-five-figure jobs.
A lot of this is not about Conan at all. Like any small-business owner, the head of Conaco feels the burden of supporting his employees who have been with him for nearly 17 years. Their livelihoods depend on him.
And that's why, I think, he did what he did. With the "People of Earth" letter, O'Brien took a calculated risk, turning up the heat so NBC would turn him loose, not hold him to an obnoxious no-compete deal and let him — and his staff — get back to work somewhere else ASAP.
I talked about this at greater length in an excellent segment on WHAS Radio this morning with my friend Paul Harris.
Meanwhile, here are tonight's monologue potshots at NBC and Jay. I love the one about Jay.
Hi, I'm Conan O'Brien, and I've been practicing the phrase, "Who ordered the mochaccino grande?"
Hosting "The Tonight Show" has been the fulfillment of a lifelong dream for me - and I just want to say to the kids out there watching: You can do anything you want in life. Unless Jay Leno wants to do it too.
According to a new TV Guide poll, 83 percent of voters want me to stay at 11:35. When he heard this poll number, President Obama asked, "How can I get NBC to screw me over?"
I'm getting a lot of support out there, especially from an online group calling themselves "Team Conan." It's very exciting-it's the first time in my life I've been on a team where I wasn't picked last.
Last night, the new season of "American Idol" started on the FOX Network and it was watched by an audience of 30 million people. When they heard that, NBC executives said "That's not true, there's no such thing as an audience of 30 million people."
Responses:
Sam Johnson writes:
I, unlike most people, watched The Jay Leno Show at 10:30pm several times. It is really not good. All due respect to Jay, he had a great stand-up once upon a time and his Tonight Show was definitely watchable. But, his new show is anything but. What it is is him being pithy and snotty for half an hour. The interviews are often drab and always transparent. Hypothesis: viewers try to choke down this new Jay Leno Show on their way to The Tonight Show, get tired of it and change the channel, completely forgetting why they had on NBC and not returning. Does it sound that far-fetched? It oughtn't, if I say so myself. I, for one, do likewise all the time.
Furthermore, if this goes through as planned, Jay has come off to the public as a dick. It's too late to spin this story. He might get his old fans back (assuming they were fans of Jay and not the franchise). But, he's not attracting any new ones with this story in their minds. And what big name celeb is going to give Jay an interview now? Brad Pitt doesn't have to do anything he doesn't want to. And we can't forget about the "sometimes" viewers who only tune in for their favorite celebs. As much as we all love our favorite host, it's the guests that make or break the show, and this business is much too cutthroat for a Brad Pitt to chum it up with the guy who just angered Conan's adamantly loyal five million.
Jimmy Z writes:
He brought his entire staff across the country, including musicians (who are usually very rooted in their hotbeds - like New York). It is amazing that NBC would just bounce these people as if they made no sacrifice, and it didn't matter.
But tell me: Wasn't it Jay that set all this into motion about 5 or 6 years ago when he declared his retirement in 2009? And then NBC put together the contract to move Conan into the Tonight Show.
I don't dislike Jay (I do think Conan is funnier), but in my little view from the outside, I think Jay is at fault here. If I could be the NBC big dog for a day, I'd tell Jay it was over. Jay's like Joe Namath - didn't know when to call it quits. And my prediction for his 10pm show was right on the mark. And I predict his return to 1135 will be a disaster - for him and NBC.
(In the short run NBC will be just fine with Jay and his five million. The question is where NBC will be in five years, or ten years, when Leno retires or — more likely — is skewing so old that NBC orders him to step aside. As for who deserves the blame, I believe NBC shoulders all it. Leno tried to be Mr. Nice Guy and exit gracefully, but NBC management should have said simply: It's over. And when he resisted, they should have told him: Have fun at ABC. Now, in a misguided effort to keep their all-stars on the same team, NBC has clubhouse chaos. --AB)
Tanya Palmer writes:
I can't figure out why NBC is so enamored with Jay. He'll be 60 this year; probably 15 years older than Conan. Conan's age makes him perfect for taking over the Tonight Show, or any late night show and staying with it for 15+ years, just like Jay and Johnny before him. It is so shortsighted of NBC, when advertisers want people under 50, and that's where Conan's appeal is. `
Gary Clifford writes:
I still think Jay should do the honorable thing and step away. But if not, at the very least Jay surely must insist NBC let his 'friend' leave the network immediately and go somewhere else.
I can't see how Jay isn't damaged goods if Conan is effectively out of work because of Jay. In a perverse way, for Jay to be okay again at 11.30 he needs Conan to land on his feet somewhere.
Conan might have lost 11.30, but he at least has the moral high ground.
