Will Comic-Con vamoose San Diego?

Chip Franklin of San Diego's KOGO Radio and I talked about the Union-Tribune story over the weekend reporting that Comic-Con was "in danger" of being relocated to L.A. or Vegas. Along the way, we got sidetracked discussing whether the NFL revenue sharing arrangement is "corporate socialism" or not.

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TASTELAND: The book drops this week

I talked about my new book on KMBZ Radio this morning. There's more info — and my catchy "Tired of Watching Crap" theme song — at the book's official website, TastelandBook.com.

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The Winter Games: Did we NEED to see the luger die?

Chip Franklin and I talked about the ridiculous coverage of the luge death in the Winter Games on KOGO Radio in San Diego this morning.

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Super Bowl wrap

Chip Franklin and I broke down the game and the ads Monday on KOGO Radio in San Diego.

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Time to get "Lost": The podcast

A quick primer with KMBZ Radio this morning, in which I advance most of the major points of my piece today in the Kansas City Star, arguing that even casual fans — even those who stopped watching in Season 3 — need to come back and get "Lost" one more time.

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Obama v. GOP: Friday night fights are fun to watch!

Chip Franklin wanted to talk about something involving the President and the Obama. To hell with that, I said — what about that amazing day for democracy that we saw telecast on live television Friday, between the President and his Republican critics?

We also talked about the Oprah-Jay interview (which I fully dissected, lie by lie, here), and about the return of "Lost." We chatted, as we do every week, on San Diego's news-talk leader, KOGO Radio, on Monday.

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Talkin' late night with Walt, Part 2

Here's part 2 of this:

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Talkin' late night with Walt, Part 1

This was earlier in the month — January 19th to be exact — but still holds up pretty well and has some nice color from the TV critics' tour that I had just returned from. Some discussion of Simon Cowell, mostly discussion of Big Chin and Big Red.

Here I am on the Walt Bodine Show, two segments from my monthly visit. From KCUR Radio.

Part 1:

WALT 1-19-2010 #1

and Part 2 (which I have to put in a separate article for the folks subscribing by iTunes) is located here.

First reaction to the Oprah interview: Why is Jay doing this?

I'll have more, MUCH more, to say on Friday about the Jay Leno interview. But here's a taste: my instant reaction to the "Oprah" interview on WTOP Radio in our nation's capital. In a nutshell, I am baffled at the tone Leno has chosen to take: self-serving, petulant, whiny, and every now and then, spouting the company line by blaming Conan. I am not actually baffled that he thinks this way, more that he thought it would be a bright idea to share this with the world via Oprah's couch.

HERE IT IS: Dissecting the O-Jay interview, lie by lie

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What next for Conan?

The No. 1-rated late night host (in the 18-to-49-year-old demo) is going out with a spring in his step, with some of his best shows. What does this portend for the future of Conan in late night? Comparisons to Dennis Miller and David Letterman in my segment today on KNX Radio in Los Angeles.

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"Idol" without Simon: Will tryout shows ever be the same?

Click to hear a TVB Podcast

I carried on with Jim and Diane on KNX Newsradio in Hollywood shortly after the announcement that Simon Cowell wasn't coming back to "Idol."

Two things to bear in mind about the Conan O'Brien mess

Every third blog seems to have an online poll as a way to whore for pageviews gauge the public pulse about the NBC situation.

Everyone seems to have an opinion, but not everyone has an informed opinion. Specifically, there are a couple of points people keep missing here.

1. Late night is a long haul. That is why "Tonight Show's" 40-50 percent slippage in ratings since Conan took over is not consequential. In two years, that number will be back up, and in three years, Letterman may be off the air (his soon-to-be-signed deal goes through 2012). NBC is still competitive with CBS in 18-49 and 18-34. Those audiences are the future of late night. Conan is only going to pick up more of those, while Dave is only going to lose them (mostly to old age, as they graduate out of the demographic). And Jay is going to lose them, too.

From 1993 to 1995, Conan O'Brien regained much of the audience he had lost when he took over the "Late Night" franchise. During that time he had to undergo fairly stressful, if not humiliating, 13-week renewals. But that was better than this time, when his long-term deal meant nothing in the face of a bossy colleague.

It's remarkable that NBC would let another talent representing a decade or more of unrealized future revenues walk out the door, when executives who can remember the last time it happened are still at the network. But hey, they've got Jimmy Fallon, and regardless of how lame you think he is, he'll come along, too. Long-term, people.

2. This isn't just about the host. OK, OK, we get it, people — you don't feel sorry for a millionaire. Neither does Conan. But what these critics miss is the fact that this millionaire just asked 100 or so people to uproot their lives and move with him 3,000 miles, into a market where they probably would have to buy an overpriced house, all to keep their low-six-figure-high-five-figure jobs.

A lot of this is not about Conan at all. Like any small-business owner, the head of Conaco feels the burden of supporting his employees who have been with him for nearly 17 years. Their livelihoods depend on him.

And that's why, I think, he did what he did. With the "People of Earth" letter, O'Brien took a calculated risk, turning up the heat so NBC would turn him loose, not hold him to an obnoxious no-compete deal and let him — and his staff — get back to work somewhere else ASAP.

I talked about this at greater length in an excellent segment on WHAS Radio this morning with my friend Paul Harris.

Meanwhile, here are tonight's monologue potshots at NBC and Jay. I love the one about Jay.

Hi, I'm Conan O'Brien, and I've been practicing the phrase, "Who ordered the mochaccino grande?"

Hosting "The Tonight Show" has been the fulfillment of a lifelong dream for me - and I just want to say to the kids out there watching: You can do anything you want in life. Unless Jay Leno wants to do it too.

According to a new TV Guide poll, 83 percent of voters want me to stay at 11:35. When he heard this poll number, President Obama asked, "How can I get NBC to screw me over?"

I'm getting a lot of support out there, especially from an online group calling themselves "Team Conan." It's very exciting-it's the first time in my life I've been on a team where I wasn't picked last.

Last night, the new season of "American Idol" started on the FOX Network and it was watched by an audience of 30 million people. When they heard that, NBC executives said "That's not true, there's no such thing as an audience of 30 million people."

Responses:

Sam Johnson writes:

I, unlike most people, watched The Jay Leno Show at 10:30pm several times. It is really not good. All due respect to Jay, he had a great stand-up once upon a time and his Tonight Show was definitely watchable. But, his new show is anything but. What it is is him being pithy and snotty for half an hour. The interviews are often drab and always transparent. Hypothesis: viewers try to choke down this new Jay Leno Show on their way to The Tonight Show, get tired of it and change the channel, completely forgetting why they had on NBC and not returning. Does it sound that far-fetched? It oughtn't, if I say so myself. I, for one, do likewise all the time.

Furthermore, if this goes through as planned, Jay has come off to the public as a dick. It's too late to spin this story. He might get his old fans back (assuming they were fans of Jay and not the franchise). But, he's not attracting any new ones with this story in their minds. And what big name celeb is going to give Jay an interview now? Brad Pitt doesn't have to do anything he doesn't want to. And we can't forget about the "sometimes" viewers who only tune in for their favorite celebs. As much as we all love our favorite host, it's the guests that make or break the show, and this business is much too cutthroat for a Brad Pitt to chum it up with the guy who just angered Conan's adamantly loyal five million.

Jimmy Z writes:

He brought his entire staff across the country, including musicians (who are usually very rooted in their hotbeds - like New York). It is amazing that NBC would just bounce these people as if they made no sacrifice, and it didn't matter.

But tell me: Wasn't it Jay that set all this into motion about 5 or 6 years ago when he declared his retirement in 2009? And then NBC put together the contract to move Conan into the Tonight Show.

I don't dislike Jay (I do think Conan is funnier), but in my little view from the outside, I think Jay is at fault here. If I could be the NBC big dog for a day, I'd tell Jay it was over. Jay's like Joe Namath - didn't know when to call it quits. And my prediction for his 10pm show was right on the mark. And I predict his return to 1135 will be a disaster - for him and NBC.

(In the short run NBC will be just fine with Jay and his five million. The question is where NBC will be in five years, or ten years, when Leno retires or — more likely — is skewing so old that NBC orders him to step aside. As for who deserves the blame, I believe NBC shoulders all it. Leno tried to be Mr. Nice Guy and exit gracefully, but NBC management should have said simply: It's over. And when he resisted, they should have told him: Have fun at ABC. Now, in a misguided effort to keep their all-stars on the same team, NBC has clubhouse chaos. --AB)

Tanya Palmer writes:

I can't figure out why NBC is so enamored with Jay. He'll be 60 this year; probably 15 years older than Conan. Conan's age makes him perfect for taking over the Tonight Show, or any late night show and staying with it for 15+ years, just like Jay and Johnny before him. It is so shortsighted of NBC, when advertisers want people under 50, and that's where Conan's appeal is. `

Gary Clifford writes:

I still think Jay should do the honorable thing and step away. But if not, at the very least Jay surely must insist NBC let his 'friend' leave the network immediately and go somewhere else.

I can't see how Jay isn't damaged goods if Conan is effectively out of work because of Jay. In a perverse way, for Jay to be okay again at 11.30 he needs Conan to land on his feet somewhere.

Conan might have lost 11.30, but he at least has the moral high ground.

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"People of Earth": Conan O'Brien's awesome takedown of NBC

When he was in his own pitched battle with the NBC executive brain trust back in the 1990s, David Letterman kept it all under wraps. No one knew how desperately he pined for "The Tonight Show," and even though it should have been obvious to the lunkheads in Burbank, it wasn't, and Dave lost out to Jay Leno.

Now, on the verge of being delivered a similar setback — and as NBC is prepared again to hand the valuable 11:35 time slot to Jay Leno — Conan O'Brien is doing the one thing Dave failed to do: Take his case directly to the American public.

Earlier today he published an awesome letter to his fans, his detractors, and all the other inhabitants of this big blue marble. It is written out of a calm, controlled anger at NBC, and it exposes the National Broadcasting Company's mistakes for what they are: an attempt to destroy the grandest program in American TV history for short-term gain.

As brilliant as this letter is, it all but confirms something that Conan-watchers (like me) have been suspecting: NBC did not promise Conan the 11:35 show. It promised him "The Tonight Show" — at whatever time they feel like starting it. If they promised him 11:35, then they'd be in breach of contract right now. But they apparently didn't — so they have him over a barrel. And he is responding the only way he knows how.

I think Joe Adalian is right: This isn't a legal manuever, it's a declaration of a person who feels he's been wronged. It's likely to garner huge sympathy inside and outside Hollywood. ("Such a ballsy — just the way I hoped it would go," was the immediate reaction of "Scrubs" creator Bill Lawrence, who brought it up at his TV critics' tour presser on Wednesday.) And that will help him wherever he lands next.

So what did I think of the letter?

Honestly, he had me at "People of Earth." It mentions Jimmy Fallon by name, and David Letterman by name — but not Jay Leno. It lays out his case as forcefully and honestly as he can, but is leavened by both humor and perspective (small children will not die if he doesn't get to keep "The Tonight Show").

What happens now? As I see it, either NBC changes its mind, or NBC graciously lets Conan out of his deal, or Conan sits on the beach. Someone suggested Jay Leno should do "the honorable thing" and step away. But it's not like he started re-desiring the "Tonight Show" last month. He's had seller's remorse for years. He wanted the show back. And now, it appears, he's going to get it. I don't blame him. I thought about it some more and now I've decided Leno deserves as much of the blame as the network does. I blame a broken-down TV network for screwing this all up. NBC should've said no to Jay in 1992. It didn't, but things worked out OK. NBC should've also said no to Jay in 2008. It didn't, and now it's really in a mess.

I discussed Conan's letter with WTOP Radio in Washington this evening. Click the podcast link above to listen. And now, the letter.

People of Earth:

In the last few days, I've been getting a lot of sympathy calls, and I want to start by making it clear that no one should waste a second feeling sorry for me. For 17 years, I've been getting paid to do what I love most and, in a world with real problems, I've been absurdly lucky. That said, I've been suddenly put in a very public predicament and my bosses are demanding an immediate decision.

Six years ago, I signed a contract with NBC to take over The Tonight Show in June of 2009. Like a lot of us, I grew up watching Johnny Carson every night and the chance to one day sit in that chair has meant everything to me. I worked long and hard to get that opportunity, passed up far more lucrative offers, and since 2004 I have spent literally hundreds of hours thinking of ways to extend the franchise long into the future. It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule. Building a lasting audience at 11:30 is impossible without both.

But sadly, we were never given that chance. After only seven months, with my Tonight Show in its infancy, NBC has decided to react to their terrible difficulties in prime-time by making a change in their long-established late night schedule.

Last Thursday, NBC executives told me they intended to move the Tonight Show to 12:05 to accommodate the Jay Leno Show at 11:35. For 60 years the Tonight Show has aired immediately following the late local news. I sincerely believe that delaying the Tonight Show into the next day to accommodate another comedy program will seriously damage what I consider to be the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting. The Tonight Show at 12:05 simply isn't the Tonight Show. Also, if I accept this move I will be knocking the Late Night show, which I inherited from David Letterman and passed on to Jimmy Fallon, out of its long-held time slot. That would hurt the other NBC franchise that I love, and it would be unfair to Jimmy.

So it has come to this: I cannot express in words how much I enjoy hosting this program and what an enormous personal disappointment it is for me to consider losing it. My staff and I have worked unbelievably hard and we are very proud of our contribution to the legacy of The Tonight Show. But I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction. Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet a time slot doesn't matter. But with the Tonight Show, I believe nothing could matter more.

There has been speculation about my going to another network but, to set the record straight, I currently have no other offer and honestly have no idea what happens next. My hope is that NBC and I can resolve this quickly so that my staff, crew, and I can do a show we can be proud of, for a company that values our work.

Have a great day and, for the record, I am truly sorry about my hair; it's always been that way.

Yours,

Conan

And this just in:

THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH CONAN O'BRIEN MONOLOGUE: Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Hello, my name is Conan O'Brien, and I may soon be available for children's parties.

Welcome to NBC. Where our new slogan is, "No longer just screwing up prime-time."

When I was a little boy, I remember watching "The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson" and thinking "Someday, I'm going to host that show for 7 months."

NBC says they're planning to have the late night situation worked out before the Winter Olympics start. And trust me, when NBC says something - you can take that to the bank!

Reactions:

Justin LeBerge writes:

It's my understanding (based on various reports in media outlets, including yours) that Dave is close to finalizing a contract extension. Presumably that means he hasn't. We know Dave hates NBC with the fire of a thousand suns. It would also seem that Dave is winding down his stellar career. Dave and Conan have great respect for each other.

Craig is funny, and does a great show...but I'm not sure he's ready for 11:35 yet. Furthermore, Craig has not done the Late Late Show for so long that he should feel entitled to the 11:35 show. I further assume that Craig hasn't turned down other, more lucrative offers to stay with Worldwide Pants.

So, with all that as a background, what do you think about Dave seizing this opportunity to bow out (perhaps at the end of the summer) and turn the show over to Conan? What a delightful way for Dave to ensure his Late Show franchise stays in capable hands while giving the ultimate slap in the face of the network that slighted him.

(Sorry, Justin, but Dave is all but signed to a two-year deal with CBS. He is there until 2012. One scenario has Conan parked at CBS/Showtime for two years, then taking over, but that would mean the 150 or so people he just persuaded to uproot their lives and follow him from New York to LA would have to start looking for work. The more I think about it, the more I think there is really only one good option available to Conan: Pray NBC lets him out of his deal gracefully and pray Fox scoops him up at whatever bargain price Fox is willing to pay.--AB)

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After Simon leaves, will horrible singing ever be the same?

That was one of the questions I pondered along with midday anchors Susie Jones and John Hines on WCCO Radio in Minneapolis today. John is filling in while Eleanor Mondale is recovering from a brain tumor — which she apparently really, truly is — and on a personal note, speaking as someone who lost my sister-in-law to a much more aggressive brain tumor and had my own life saved by a new-age biotech cancer drug, I'm looking forward to my next appearance on 'CCO, when Susie and Eleanor interview me.

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Jay Leno, Simon Cowell, and we've just started 2010!

I was on Jack FM in Kansas City this morning discussing the rock-em-sock-em first few days of the new year in television, and looking forward to the TV midseason ahead, with Bryan Truta and Nycki Pace.

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Conan O'Brien will do fine. It's Carson Daly who's the odd man out.

What's this nonsense I'm hearing about Conan O'Brien being the "odd man out" at NBC?

So, let's assume that NBC moves Jay Leno back to 11:35, as seems all but certain. That means Conan O'Brien will either (a) stop getting beaten by Letterman or (b) go to Fox, which will make last year's NBC blitz for "The Tonight Show" seem like an episode of "The Biggest Loser" (which, incidentally, NBC will be if they're dumb enough to let him go).

This morning on KOGO Radio, I explained to LaDona Harvey (sitting in for Chip) how it was that we got to this point, what the various scenarios are and why the odd man out in all of this is Carson Daly, host of the worst show in late night.

Carson seems to know this, which is why he agreed to do this cameo appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live Friday night:

Meanwhile, here is a great letter I got from John Knox, not the reformer, but the guy I met in the 1990s when he was helping Conan O'Brien and Jay Leno get going in "cyberspace." Remember cyberspace? John designed both their websites. He writes,

This whole drama has been riveting to look at from afar (I'm back home in Canada now and working in radio) ... especially as someone who had an inside view of the machinations of both shows.

It pains me to see that NBC has, in an effort to prevent a re-run of the Letterman/Leno/Kushnick debacle, created an even bigger mess. NBC seems to have an unmatched and uncanny ability to put the worst person possible in charge of the Peacock's Entertainment Division and the decisions that flow unchecked from those folks sometimes just defy all logic and reasonable thought. I remarked to a friend who is a retail manager recently that he and I and a monkey could run the NBC Entertainment Division better than the last five or six people in that role, and that would be presuming we both reported to the monkey.

I really feel for both these guys. Both were excellent comedians in their own right and fantastic guys to work with and for. Both Jay and Conan were such gentlemen to this kid who showed up one day with plans to take their comedy and put it on this thing called "the internet'. The executive producers, Debbie Vickers at Tonight and Jeff Ross at Late Night were both amazing people.

I think the smartest move is for Conan to walk. He'll do better elsewhere at this point and has a good shot and helping the late night hours of Fox or ABC. He might be able to singlehandedly create the late night block that Fox has tried and failed to create in the past.

That could create a real horse race in late night and who knows, with the resources of Murdoch or Disney, Conan could possibly give Jay a run for his money.

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Is NBC about to dump Jay Leno?

That's the word Scott Jones is picking up. He's the proprietor of the proprietary FTVLive.com (back in the day, it was F@#!!edTelevision.com, one of the braver Web addresses I've seen). He's heard that there is a high-level battle underway at NBC about the future of "The Jay Leno Show." I joined the conversation on KNX Radio to make the case, such as it was, for keeping Jay.

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Time Warner and Fox - the liveblog!

I'm actually not sure there's going to be that much to liveblog. Part of the problem with covering these negotiations is that, well, they're negotiations, and details rarely trickle out to the press, even after the fact. After all, Time Warner will have negotiations with CBS, Disney and NBC Universal after this one.

Here's a podcast of me on KNX Radio in Los Angeles earlier this afternoon, with the latest information about the standstill. Here's some background on who it is Time Warner is dealing with. Despite the bravado in the Time Warner web site, RollOverOrGetTough.com, the reality is that Tony Vinciquerra can probably match Time Warner tough for tough, withou breaking a sweat. And the fact that Time Warner executives called for a cooling-off period (is that rolling over ... or getting tough?), and yesterday called for congressional intervention suggests that they think Fox right now has the upper hand.

We'll see.

UPDATE 9:42 PM. Nothing to report. The FCC wants Time Warner and Fox to agree to a voluntary extension, but Fox isn't playing around.

UPDATE 11:40 PM CT. The two sides have agreed to a three HOUR extension in contract talks. So maybe they'll git er done. The deals expire at 2 a.m. local time.

LAST UPDATE FOR NOW. 9:25 AM Friday: The two sides seem to be working it out. The focus shifts now to Scripps, which actually saw its Food Network dropped in three million Cablevision homes in New York last night. No "Super Chef Battle" for you!

DEAL IS DONE. Here's the non-informational press release from Fox and Time Warner.

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Forget about "Idol" - Time Warner may pull the plug on the Iron Chef "Super Battle"!

UPDATE 3:30 PM CT: I spoke with KNX Newsradio in Los Angeles about the latest developments in the Time Warner-Fox drama.

UPDATE noon Wednesday: Ann Shrewsbury of Time Warner Cable told me the Scripps retransmission agreement is also in doubt. The Scripps deal also expires Thursday at midnight as well. That affects Food Network and GAC from the list below. And that would imperil the Emeril-Mario-Bobbyflay-White House Executive Chef showdown airing Jan. 3 on Food Network. Talk about a knife to the heart!

I have no idea who is right, or if anybody is right, in this current dispute between Time Warner Cable and Fox over a retransmission agreement that's set to expire Dec. 31. (Here's the TWC website you've heard about.)

It may or may not be a deja vu of last year, when all of Viacom's cable channels did unto Time Warner as Time Warner is doing unto Fox. You'll recall that MTV, BET, Comedy Central and other channels were running alarmist crawls 24/7 until a deal was finally struck at 12 minutes to midnight last Dec. 31.

Maybe Time Warner has a point, as it did when it stood fast against the money grab by the NFL Network. Or maybe it doesn't, as when it tried to boot the city's most watched television station off the air.

I don't know. And since "American Idol" isn't affected here -- the owner of Fox 4 has renegotiated its retransmission deal with Time Warner Cable -- I don't much care. What I do know is that the following channels on Time Warner's endangered list (taken from its most recent legal notice to subscribers) is mighty long:

January, 2010

Time Warner Cable’s agreements with programmers to carry their services routinely expire from time to time. We are usually able to obtain renewals or extensions of such agreements and carriage of programming services is discontinued only in rare circumstances. The following agreements with programmers are due to expire soon, and we may be required to cease carriage of one or more of these services in the near future.

Azteca America,E! Entertainment Television,Encore,Encore Action,Encore Drama,Encore Love,Encore Mystery,Encore WAM,Encore Westerns,Food Network,Food Network HD,Fox Reality Channel,Fox Soccer Channel,Fox Sports en Espanol,FSN Midwest HD,FSN Midwest,Fuel TV,FX,GAC,i-LifeTV,Indieplex,Lifetime,Speed Channel,Speed Channel HD,Starz,Starz (West),Starz Cinema,Starz Comedy,Starz Edge,Starz HDTV,Starz in Black ,Starz Kids and Family,Starz Kids and Family HD,Starz On Demand,Style Network,truTV,Weather Channel.

As you can see, Time Warner's corporate lawyers in New York play chicken with a lot more channels than just those belonging to big, bad, greedy old Fox's. (Note: Fox is pulling the plug on Fox Reality in March, anyway.)

FEEDBACK

Jon Delfin writes:

Impossible to pick a side in this battle between two bullies. All I know is, I went out the other day and finally bought an antenna to attach to the "just in case" digital TV converter I bought last summer.

Laurence Kranich writes:

The big problem is when desperate cable networks bid against each other for the few shows and events that will actually bring them eyeballs. It's worst with sports and movie packages, but I imagine hit TV series' rerun rights also bring in the poker players from ESPN, TNT, USA, Spike, Versus, etc. They're all betting with our money - no matter who wins, the money comes out of these "rights fees" and our cable and satellite bills. Murdoch says "the price of quality programming goes up" but more often it's the price of these bidding wars, which bring no benefit to the viewer whatsoever. It's great that someone is trying to stop it, but Time Warner also owns a lot of the cable channels that are in the thick of the bidding wars.

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Best TV and worst TV in 2009

Chip Franklin and I reviewed the year in television, but first we talked about the crazy maneuvering over the healthcare bill in Congress as it played out in the media.

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